60,000 flu deaths ‘may break NHS’

A LETHAL “triple whammy” of Covid-19, flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) could push the NHS to breaking point this winter.

A report from the Academy of Medical Sciences estimated that up to 60,000 people could die of flu alone in a worst-case scenario.

Scientists want to increase the uptake of the flu jab including quick tests for it and RSV, a common respiratory virus.

Prof Azra Ghani, chair in infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London, said there is uncertainty about what level of immunity to influenza will remain in the population after there were very few cases last year.

She said: “If the epidemic does take off again, then compared to a normal flu year we could see somewhere in the region of an epidemic that is 1.5 to 2 times that of a normal year.

“In a normal year, according to estimates from Public Health England, there are between 10,000 and 30,000 deaths from flu.

“This could present substantial impact on the NHS as we head into winter.”

Mathematical modelling suggests between 15,000 and 60,000 could die from flu this winter.

Prof Ghani added: “These scenarios have very many uncertainties reflecting what we don’t know.

“What is clear is that the triple whammy of these infections, on top of the backlog of routine care, is going to potentially disrupt services in the coming winter and likely to put a severe strain on the NHS and its staff.”

The Academy of Medical Sciences brought together 29 experts at the request of Chief Scientific Adviser Sir PatrickVallance to look at what may happen this winter.

They also highlighted challenges in the huge backlog of patients awaiting treatment, staff shortages and reduced hospital bed capacity.