MAKE OR BREAK
Top-flight football may be on hold but for teams at the wrong end of the table it is vital time to prepare for the survival battle yet to come
It may be a winter break for the top flight but it is a worrying time for some teams – and not just those in the drop zone. Brentford, in 14th, are eight points ahead of 18th-placed Newcastle, who have two games in hand. We assess the run-in. BRENTFORD (14TH)
By Paul Brown
BOSS Thomas Frank says he is not worried by his side’s form despite four straight defeats.
He is probably right to be bullish as his team have a decent cushion above the drop zone.
Anyone who saw them take on Manchester United recently would have left the ground scratching their heads at just how the Bees lost 3-1.
They battered United in the first half and should have been out of sight. With better finishing the game would have been over.
Since then the club have handed Frank a new deal and are close to adding star quality in the shape of Christian Eriksen. Unlike some rivals they look a stable, happy camp and should have enough to avoid getting sucked into real danger. Things could get worse before they get better as next up is a daunting trip to Manchester City.
But their next three home games are against Crystal Palace, Newcastle and Burnley and a couple of wins should keep their heads above water.
Brentford have won more games than any of the teams below them but need to find a way to draw the ones they can’t win. They are outscoring most rivals and are such a threat from set pieces that their goal difference does not look like becoming a problem.
LEEDS (15TH)
By David Anderson
NO ONE could have predicted Leeds would be bumping around towards the bottom after their ninth-place finish last season.
Their aim was to build on that success and target Europe. But an horrific injury story, which reads like a script from Casualty, means boss Marcelo Bielsa has spent the campaign fighting fires.
He has had a treatment room full of crocked players for virtually every game. The loss of Kalvin Phillips and Patrick Bamford has been particularly painful and the England duo have missed long spells. Bamford has played just 22 minutes since September 17 because of a succession of problems, while Phillips has been out since early December and is not expected back until March.
Leeds have soldiered on and back-toback wins over Burnley and West Ham were big.
Saturday’s home loss to Newcastle was galling but they are still seven points clear of the bottom three. Apart from Manchester City away and the first half at home to Arsenal, their performance levels have been good and they are still playing an intense, high-pressing game.
Youngsters such as Joe Gelhardt and Leo Hjelde have produced promising cameo displays to suggest the club’s conveyor belt is still churning out talent.
They hoped to bolster the midfield in January but have been unable to persuade Red Bull Salzburg to part with US international Brenden Aaronson so far. Although Leeds will have to make do with their current depleted squad, they should still have enough to stay clear of trouble.
EVERTON (16TH)
By David Maddock
Just a few weeks ago, Everton fans would have laughed had anyone suggested they could be sucked into a relegation fight. This was the team that was first in the table in August and still around the top four at the end of September. No one is laughing now.
The Toffees are in a scrap for their lives and given the run of form since September – one win in 14 – they could easily go down.
Much depends on which manager they appoint. Choose the wrong one and they are doomed. It is a huge call for owner Farhad Moshiri, and one that could cost many millions if he gets it wrong.
Some of the candidates have either no real experience, or have actually got experience of getting clubs relegated. That is not what they need but, given Moshiri’s crazy choice of managers in his six-year reign, there are no guarantees he will get it right. This is no time to gamble.
Everton need a sensible appointment, perhaps even taking a manager until the end of the season like Manchester United. If they do that, you have to believe Everton can stay up, but these next few days will be critical to the future of the club.
NORWICH (17TH)
By Tony Banks
WHEN Dean Smith took over at Norwich 10 tough weeks ago, the Canaries looked utterly doomed.
They were rock bottom, five points from safety, with one win from their opening 11 games – and eight defeats.
But last Friday’s dramatic 3-0 win over fellow strugglers Watford not only ended Claudio Ranieri’s short-lived reign in charge of the Hornets, it also – for the first
time in 52 successive Premier League matches including their last spell in the top flight – lifted Norwich out of the bottom three.
The former Aston Villa manager has instilled a new spirit after an uncertain start, winning his past two games to make it three from his first 11 in charge.
Norwich still face an almighty struggle to stay up but, with Burnley struggling, Watford imploding and Everton sliding, suddenly there is hope where there was previously only despair. The danger, though, for the Canaries is that Newcastle, with all their Saudi money available, could bring in more players and start to climb.
And the Canaries look the most vulnerable of the teams just above them. After the break, Norwich face Wolves in the FA Cup and Crystal Palace but then games against Manchester City and Liverpool loom.
Smith has nowhere near the same money to spend as his rivals, so new arrivals are unlikely and he will hope the goals keep coming from Josh Sargent and Adam Idah to help out Teemu Pukki. That will be crucial.
NEWCASTLE (18TH)
By Simon Bird
BOSS Eddie Howe insists Newcastle are “not dead and buried” but they remain in serious danger.
On the positive side, they are unbeaten in three games after the away win at Leeds on Saturday. Howe’s tougher training regime since he took over will see them improve physically towards the end of the season. Tactically too, his persistence with a more open style, which saw heavy defeats against top sides early on, could pay dividends with home games against Everton and Villa, and no top-four sides to face until March.
The great unknown is what Newcastle will look like come Monday. With five new signings being sought, the Toon are set to be given a major boost.
That is if the owners can get deals done amid late brinkmanship from selling clubs.
If the owners can bring in a top centre-back or two, a leading holding midfielder, a left-back and an attacker, they should have enough to survive. The mood among the fans has been fatalistic, many believing they may have to go down and rebuild a stagnating squad. But a second win of the season last Saturday has rekindled hope.
The big worry is where the goals will come from, with Callum Wilson out injured for eight weeks. A week-long training camp in Jeddah will allow Howe to knuckle down again on the training pitch and bond his squad off the field.
It is likely to be a close-run thing but Newcastle should scrape home with a few points to spare, much to the disappointment of rivals willing the new Saudi regime to fail.
WATFORD (19th)
By Mike Walters
GOING down faster than the Cresta Run – but Roy Hodgson’s arrival gives them renewed hope of arresting the slide.
Claudio Ranieri’s place in English football legend is secure after his title miracle at Leicester but sacking ‘The Tinkerman’ became inevitable after Friday night’s 3-0 home defeat by relegation rivals Norwich.
Ranieri’s seven points from a possible 39 curtailed his reign after just 112 days, and former England boss Hodgson will have his work cut out to organise a revival.
His first task will be to shore up a leaky defence that has failed to keep a clean sheet all season – the only club in all four divisions without a shut-out.
He must hope Ismaila Sarr, who suffered knee ligament damage after a poor challenge by Donny van de Beek in the 4-1 rout of Manchester United two months ago, will be fit to play a part during the run-in.
The Norwich debacle dumped Watford in the drop zone for the first time this season despite Ranieri winning only one point since November 20. Hodgson’s first game is at rock-bottom Burnley on February 5, followed by a trip to West Ham 72 hours later.
Things may get worse for the Hornets before they get better.
BURNLEY (20th)
By David Anderson
IF Sean Dyche had a quid for every time Burnley have been tipped for relegation in the past six years, he would be able to buy Erling Haaland to replace Chris Wood.
But this year could be the season when football’s laws of gravity finally catch up with the great survivors. Twelve points from 18 games and just one win makes grim reading.
The sale of Wood, Burnley’s top league scorer over the past four seasons, to their relegation rivals Newcastle has made it worse.
Chuck in chairman Alan Pace having to deny he is struggling to pay the debts and Burnley look like a club in crisis.
Defending is a big problem. Their survival acts have been based on a solid defence and Nick Pope is regularly near the top in the Premier League’s Golden Glove table. He has only four clean sheets this season, though, and Burnley have lost their knack of winning games 1-0.