Once tanks roll it’s beginning of the end for Putin
CHAIRMAN MAO, China’s revolutionary tyrant, declared that “power comes from the barrel of a gun.” That is the pitiless spirit that now motivates Vladimir Putin. His increasing aggression against Ukraine is nothing more than a brutal exercise in military might and imperialist ambition. Infused with a sense of deranged megalomania after 20 years in charge of the Kremlin, he is willing to plunge eastern Europe into a bloodsoaked war in his quest to crush his neighbour’s independence.
So deranged is his hatred for Ukraine he has claimed that the country is “an artificial creation” without any “tradition of genuine statehood”, much as Hitler liked to claim that Czechoslovakia was not a proper nation, providing a pretext for his invasion in 1939.
Indeed, just as Hitler fomented the Czech crisis by the mass mobilisation of the German army and whipping up separatism in the Sudetenland, so Putin has undermined Ukrainian sovereignty by placing more than 200,000 Russian troops at the Ukrainian border and by fuelling internecine conflict in the disputed enclaves of Luhansk and Donetsk.
His cynical recognition on Monday of these two self-proclaimed breakaway territories served as the precursor to bogus peace-keeping operations, which appear likely to be followed by occupation of Ukraine.
Putin is counting on the West’s reluctance to stand up to him, despite flagrant breaches of international law and democratic principles. He has some grounds for this view.
SO FAR, the tough rhetoric of European and American politicians has not translated into vigorous action. Typical was the limited measures announced by our own Government on Tuesday, which amounted to sanctions against just five banks and three of Putin’s closest cronies.
Neither the EU nor the USA were much better, though, with more resolution, Germany agreed to suspend approval for the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline bringing gas from Russia to Europe.
This early timidity could be seen as part of a wider pattern of weakness, which encourages Putin to believe he can call the West’s bluff. One clear inadequacy is the failure of European states to build their own strong defences. No less than twothirds of Nato members do not meet the agreed threshold for military expenditure.
Moreover, Western faith in overseas intervention has been shattered in recent decades by the ill-conceived wars in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan, while national self-confidence has been eroded by the destructive ideology of the woke agenda, with its portrayal of western civilisation as a cause for selfloathing. Institutional paralysis is compounded by economic problems, including massive debts and energy dependence.
More than 40 per cent of natural gas and 27 per cent of crude oil in the EU comes from Russia, whose Government is buttressed by foreign exchange reserves and a budget surplus.
Nevertheless, it would be wrong to exaggerate the strength of Putin’s regime or the inevitability of his triumph in Ukraine, given the anaemic growth in the sclerotic Russian economy over the last decade.
Concerted Western action, led by far more extensive sanctions, could put him firmly on the defensive. Real long-term damage would be inflicted if Russian banks were banned from access to the London, European and American financial markets or were kicked out of the SWIFT international transfer system which facilitates
the flow of money between almost 200 countries.
Britain could also target those 31 Russian companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with a market value of £468billion, hurting their ability to raise capital.
PUTIN may be brimming with arrogance, but he will come to realise that he has made a terrible mistake once hard sanctions really bite and Ukrainian resistance intensifies.
The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1980 ultimately destroyed the Communist system, and today the reckless bullying of Ukraine may sound the death knell of Putin’s dictatorship. The prospect of invasion is unpopular in Russia, and public hostility will deepen when the body bags start returning.
Mired in a hated conflict, Russia will become an international pariah.The transfer of the UEFA Cup Final in May from St Petersburg to another venue will be just the first stage in that process of exclusion.
Military power is not everything. Putin has destroyed his moral authority. Once the tanks start to roll, it could also be the beginning of the end for him.
‘He will come to realise that he has made a terrible mistake’