Litmus test elections may seal Boris’s fate
THE MOMENT of decision approaches. The verdict of democracy is imminent. After months of excitable turmoil and fevered speculation at Westminster, much of the public will soon have the chance to express their views through real votes at the ballot box. Next week’s elections are the most important for years, determining far more than just the political make-up of town halls in Great Britain and the devolved Assembly in Northern Ireland.
In truth, it is no exaggeration to say that they could settle not only the fate of Boris Johnson’s premiership but the very existence of the United Kingdom in its current form. The contests come at a difficult time for both the Tories and the Ulster Unionists. Despite his effective leadership over Ukraine, the Prime Minister has been battered by Partygate and the deepening cost of living crisis, while further damage has been inflicted on his party by the latest sleaze scandals, including the allegation that one Tory MP openly watched pornography on his mobile phone in the Commons. Meanwhile across the Irish Sea, the Unionists, the traditional allies of the Tories, are trailing badly in the opinion polls behind the Republicans of Sinn Fein. Ever since the creation of the Northern Irish state in 1921, the Unionists have been the dominant force in the landscape there. That could be about to change.
If the Tories perform badly – and their Central Office has warned that they could lose more than 800 council seats – Johnson will come under severe pressure.A significant number of his MPs, who have held back from moving against him so as not to undermine local candidates, would probably submit letters of no confidence in him, making a leadership vote inevitable.
“The gig’s up,” declared the respected backbencher Steve
Baker last week, and those words could be translated into reality if the Tories experience a drubbing.
If Sinn Fein emerges as the largest party in Northern Ireland and their leader Michelle O’Neill subsequently takes office as First Minister at Stormont, then the union starts to become untenable. Some might shudder at this outcome, but in a democracy the will of the people must be paramount.
Yet it is probable that in neither case, the outcome will be clear cut. The Tories will suffer some heavy blows, but a massacre looks unlikely, partly because Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party still lacks credibility.
Almost three decades ago, Labour under Tony Blair were enjoying leads of up to 30 per cent. Yesterday, the latest survey put Labour just six points ahead, nothing like a commanding position against a beleaguered Government.
In such circumstances, Johnson will be wounded but will survive, especially as there is no obvious replacement for him. In Ulster, even if Sinn Fein triumphs as the
largest party, they will still probably get no more than a quarter of the total, province-wide votes, not enough to begin an immediate push for unity. The Democratic Unionists, as the second-placed party, will almost certainly refuse to go into a power-sharing administration with Sinn Fein, so the Good Friday Agreement will be suspended, London will temporarily take charge, and a tense paralysis will prevail – the default mode for Northern Irish governance since the early 1970s.
Some commentators will no doubt whine about the uncertainties produced by next week’s elections. But confusion, contradictions and compromises are part of the richness of democracy. No society is ever weakened by holding politicians to account through the ballot box.