Migrant referendum ‘would convince almost half Reform voters to switch to Tories’
RISHI Sunak could win back nearly half of Reform UK’s supporters if he offered the public a referendum on bringing down migration, research has claimed.
A study found Richard Tice’s party is backed by a large number of disgruntled Tories who believe the UK is worse than it used to be.
They are mainly middle-aged and older voters who live outside London and are deeply concerned about high migration levels, the Legatum Institute found.
Some 42% would consider backing the Prime Minister at the general election if he took hardline action on migration, including asking voters if they backed cutting levels to 100,000 a year.
The report from the London-based think tank also said many switchers were concerned about net zero green policies and increasing globalisation.
It stated: “Supporters of Reform UK are overwhelmingly concerned about illegal and legal immigration, which they perceive to be out of control and damaging Britain, though they also hold negative views of globalisation, net zero, and big business.
“Reform UK supporters are united by a general feeling of discontent with the UK’s current economic model, though their concerns about legal and illegal immigration are paramount.
“We suggest that unless these strong concerns about both illegal and legal immigration are addressed, concerns which are shared by much of the rest of the population, then there will remain ample space for Reform UK, or a party like it, in the years and decades ahead.”
The document was released as another study suggested Reform will cost the Conservatives 50 seats at the election.
Electoral Calculus, a political forecasting website, analysed 18,000 voters across a number of polls and predicted the worst Tory defeat in history.
It put Labour on course to win 470 seats, which would reduce to 430 if Reform stood aside – something the party has ruled out.
Meanwhile, senior Tory Jeremy Quin insisted that Mr Sunak will not be replaced before the election.
He said: “I’ve no doubt about that and I have got no doubt that the election will be a lot more exciting than the opinion polls seem to suggest.”
Soft touch
One Tory insider warned that voting for the Reform party will lead to a Labour government that is a “soft touch” on migration.
The source said: “There’s only one party that can win the election that will be tough on immigration – and that’s the Conservatives.
“So if Reform voters don’t want soft-touch Labour, led by someone who used every trick in the book as a human rights lawyer to get around immigration rules, they should vote Conservative.”