US locks down staff in Israel amid rising fear of Iran revenge attack
DIRECT hostilities between Iran and adversaries Israel and the US is an ever-present spectre of the current conflict and the associated activity by Iran-backed militias.
With the conflict dragging on, and with various militias becoming increasingly emboldened, it seemed almost inevitable that the threat of inter-state tensions would return.
Iran had already increased its aggressive rhetoric towards Israel in recent days in response to an attack on a diplomatic compound in Damascus, which Tehran equated to an attack on Iranian territory.
Despite the US warning, there is great uncertainty over whether Iran would risk a direct attack. Israel has explicitly said it would retaliate by striking inside Iran, should it stage an attack from its own soil, as opposed to responding via proxies.
Retaliation
For this reason, the use, or in the very least, support of militias has proved very successful – the Houthis’ ability to disrupt shipping routes is testament to this.
It remains most likely that any retaliation by Iran in the short term will remain ostensibly conducted by proxies, if perhaps now aimed at embassies or US military or government sites as an escalation.
Although it cannot be discounted that Iran has its eye on the long game, an immediate and direct assault would mark a significant escalation, given the US would back Israel in such an event – putting the US, and its ever more precarious relations with Israel, in an even tougher position.
THE United States has blocked travel outside of a restricted zone for all its staff in Israel amid growing fears of an imminent major attack by Iran.
As diplomatic efforts intensified to prevent an escalation of hostilities in the region, the US embassy in Israel said staff had been told not to venture outside the greater Jerusalem, Tel Aviv or Beersheba areas “out of an abundance of caution”.
Employees were placed on high alert for an anticipated Iranian retaliation to the recent air strike on its consulate in Syria.
President Joe Biden warned that Iran was threatening to launch a “significant attack”.
An Iranian news agency published an Arabic report on the social media platform X saying all airspace over Tehran had been closed for “military drills”, before deleting it and later denying it had been published.
US state department spokesman Matthew Miller said he would not disclose the “specific assessments” behind the travel restrictions, but added: “Clearly we are monitoring the threat environment in the Middle East and specifically in Israel.”
The UK Foreign Office also updated its travel advice for Israel, warning that the country’s government has raised the “possibility of an attack on Israeli territory from Iran, and that such an attack could trigger wider escalation”.
Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron phoned his Iranian counterpart to urge against any further escalation.
Following the call with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein AmirAbdollahian, Lord Cameron said he had “made clear...that Iran must not draw the Middle East into a wider conflict”. He added: “I am deeply concerned about the potential for miscalculation leading to further violence.”
As tensions mount, German airline Lufthansa on Thursday extended a suspension of all flights to Tehran until at least today.
Iranian-backed groups have increased attacks across the region since Israel launched its assault on Gaza in response to a Hamas attack on October 7 that killed 1,200 people.
Senior Iranian military figures were among the 13 killed in the attack in Damascus on April 1.
Israel has not confirmed it was behind the missile strike on Damascus, but the Pentagon has said it was. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel “must be punished and it shall be” for the attack, which killed seven members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, among them a senior commander in its elite overseas unit, the Quds Force.
Tensions
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz has since said Israel would respond if Iran attacked the country from its own soil.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a call with Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, made clear that America would stand with them against any threats.
Mr Biden also said their support for Israel remained “iron-clad”.
US Middle East envoy Brett McGurk called the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Iraq to ask them to deliver a message to Iran urging it to lower tensions, a source with knowledge of the situation said.