BEWARE TRAVEL

Hodgson’s charges must avoid slip-ups on the road — now that Wembley is no longer a fortress

THERE was a time when a draw in Poland was a good result. That was the mistake Graham Taylor made all those years ago. His team played poorly in Katowice, sneaked a point, and he dismissed them in public as headless chickens. The players took umbrage, went to Norway and lost, and began an inexorable slide out of the 1994 World Cup.

In the aftermath it was widely agreed that Taylor made a hash of the trip to Poland. Criticise the players behind closed doors, yes, but accept that a 1-1 draw is still a decent result and be diplomatic beyond those confines.

Times have changed. On the surface, a draw in Warsaw tonight is good news. Poland are a young, improving team, playing in front of a noisy, full house. Many teams would settle for a draw in Poland. Germany and Portugal did in friendly matches here last season; Argentina lost in June 2011.

Yet, for England manager Roy Hodgson (left), the problem is this: England can no longer be guaranteed to win at home. Away draws only have worth if accompanied by home victories in the corresponding fixture, and nobody talks of fortress Wembley any more.

In May 1993, it was anticipated that a point in Katowice would soon be accompanied by three more at Wembley in September and so it proved, with a 3-0 win.

Yet England have already dropped two points at home to Ukraine in this campaign and while the 3-2 reverse against Croatia in 2007 is the only qualifying defeat in 12 years, there are an increasing number of draws and a worrying air of uncertainty.

Few would bet with any confidence against further slip-ups in this group. England’s final two matches are at home to Montenegro — who closed ranks and drew 0-0 on their last visit to Wembley, in the time of Fabio Capello — and Poland, a year from now.

If six points are required to avoid a play- off or, worse, the exit, these could prove very tense affairs, given England’s variable home form.

At the National Stadium in Warsaw yesterday, Hodgson attempted to make sense of a match some see as the most critical of his 11 in charge. If the European Championship tournament was blessed with low expectation — giving it a slightly unreal air — Hodgson has now had enough time to be handed responsibility for any failure.

Lose in Poland and there will be few excuses, even if the international retirement of John Terry is a greater blow than his many detractors would have us believe.

Hodgson said that the idea of a ‘ must- win’ match was a football cliche that left him cold. He has been around the block plenty of times and, after his unofficial meet and greet on the London Underground, was not about to let another slip of the tongue cause him more problems than the opposition ever could.

There is no result that could eliminate England in Poland tonight, Hodgson made clear. He knows how quickly the balance of power changes in group football.

Ukraine drew 1-1 at Wembley and no doubt felt that the advantage was with them; then they drew 0-0 last Friday away in Moldova, where England won 5-0 last month. Back to square one.

Yet Hodgson was equally aware what a fillip a victory in Warsaw would be. ‘It reduces the pressure enormously if you can get a result away from home,’ he said, ‘and those victories are not as difficult to achieve as they once were.

‘Games are more open, with teams having to come at you and leaving themselves vulnerable. At Wembley, teams hope they can catch us on the counter-attack if we open ourselves up too much. Look at the number of away wins in the Premier League in recent seasons as well. That did not