A perfect storm that could sink Cameron
The TERRORISM threat level is raised from ‘substantial’ to ‘severe’. Meaning a terrorist attack is ‘highly likely’. Yet home Secretary Theresa May says there is no evidence to suggest one is ‘imminent’. Confusing, isn’t it?
It’s the same with the threat level to David Cameron’s position as Tory leader.
Is it low, meaning an attack on him is unlikely?; moderate, it’s possible but not likely?; substantial, a strong possibility?; severe, it’s highly likely?; or critical, expected imminently?
It is a fact that Cameron faces a substantial risk of losing the confidence of his party, not to mention the electorate. Mostly, it’s because they don’t believe — despite his promise of a 2017 referendum — that he’s serious about renegotiating our relationship with europe.
If, as expected, defecting Tory MP Douglas Carswell wins Clacton for Ukip — a Mail on Sunday poll predicts he’ll get 64 per cent of the vote, which would be, at 48 points, the biggest swing in recent political history — the threat level to Dave will rise to severe, if not critical.
Will other Tory MPs follow Carswell and defect to Ukip?
eight, including Carswell, were wined and dined by Ukip’s reigning Lord Moneybags, multi-millionaire Stuart Wheeler, who wanted them to quit the once-grand Conservative army (as he had done) for Nigel Farage’s one-issue militia.
Carswell seemed the least likely to succumb, I am told by a Tory source.
‘he seemed perfectly happy with Cameron’s promised referendum. Also, he has always been very against candidates being parachuted into constituencies by party leaderships, ignoring local opinion. And that’s exactly what Ukip have done in Clacton, for which they had already chosen the candidate they have now dumped.’
If Carswell winning Clacton puts the leadership of Cameron in severe, or even critical, danger, what can Dave do? Coming on stronger about reforming our EU obligations now would look desperate. Yet leaving things as they are will seem defeatist. he has to find a way of steadying the party’s nerves while sticking to his original script.
HIS MAIN problem isn’t europe, or doubts about his grasp of problems such as jihadist Britons and what to do about Russian encroachment in Ukraine. It is his party’s growing horror at the thought of not only losing the 2015 General election but being defeated by ed Miliband, Labour’s most unpopular leader since Michael Foot.
Doubts about Dave in the Tory Party would be diminished if the Conservatives were comfortably ahead in the opinion polls. he’d be believed over his EU promise. his statements on jihadists and Ukraine would be considered firm and statesmanlike. Yet there’s another issue bothering Tory MPs about their leader. It’s the coterie of cronies he surrounds himself with in No 10.
The power wielded by chief of staff ed Llewellyn, an eton chum of Cameron’s, and by Cabinet Secretary Sir Jeremy heywood, is resented among Tory MPs and ministers.
Such cronyism nearly always happens with prime ministers, but it adds to Cameron’s woes.
Finally, another possible ice-bucket challenge moment for the PM — the referendum on Scottish independence. If it’s ‘Yes’ to independence, it’ll be another ‘No’ to Cameron for losing Caledonia. how might the threat level to the PM be reduced? The great problems — Clacton, public doubt about being better off, EU irritations, returning jihadist Britons — could fade.
There might be a backlash against Ukip triumphalism and Douglas Carswell’s opportunism in Clacton. The PM might find an ally in europe and wage a popular war on jihadists at home and abroad. More of us might admit to feeling better off.
But it’s hard to see his threat level reducing to below ‘substantial’ from here on in. All political life ends in failure, it has been said. It’s only a question of when.