MILLIONS BACKING A LEGEND
Punters pile bets on retiring McCoy and bookies fear they may be right
IT is the outcome he is dreaming of, the result many of the 70,000-plus crowd at Aintree this afternoon will be praying for and what millions around the county are betting on.
But if you think that the Hollywood ending to AP McCoy’s record-breaking career with victory for Shutthefrontdoor in the Crabbie’s Grand National is a fairytale simply too farfetched to happen, think again.
Fairytales do happen at Aintree, as 1981 winner Aldaniti with jockey and cancer survivor Bob Champion showed.
But the simple truth is that the chance of a dream outcome for AP McCoy on Shutthefrontdoor is very much a reality.
The Jonjo O’Neill-trained eightyear- old would be favourite, and probably a strong one, even if he wasn’t the mount of the man who has vowed to end his career immediately should he land the £1million race for a second time.
Bookmakers fear a wipeout if McCoy wins, with a predicted £30million of the £150million bet on the race placed on his mount.
If Shutthefrontdoor wins they say it will be an even worse day than when Frankie Dettori went through the card with seven wins from seven mounts at Ascot in 1996.
Sources within the industry have even suggested success for the jockey about to be crowned champion for a 20th time could even lead to profit warnings being issued in the City come Monday morning.
Consequently, McCoy’s mount could end up at terrible odds, possibly the shortest price since Red Rum was beaten by L’Escargot in 1975 after starting 7-2 favourite.
If you take odds in that region you are placing a poor value bet but you, and millions like you, will simply want to hitch a ride on the McCoy bandwagon for possibly one last time.
McCoy may only have won the National once on Don’t Push It in 2010 but his record in the race is respectable. He has also been third five times, including on Double Seven last year, in a race that requires the cards to fall your way and which has eluded such giants of the weighing room as John Francome, Jonjo O’Neill and Peter Scudamore.
McCoy’s bad-luck stories included Clan Royal in 2005, who was going like the winner when carried out on the second circuit.
But the case to back Shutthefrontdoor is strong.
After the gelding won at Carlisle in November, the talk was that he could develop into a potential Cheltenham Gold Cup contender. If that was near the mark, his weight of 11st 2lb would make Shutthefrontdoor a very wellhandicapped runner.
Trainer O’Neill, who also prepared McCoy’s 2010 winner Don’t Push It, is a man who has few equals among current training ranks when it comes to getting ready a steeplechaser for a long- distance steeplechase. There never seemed to be much chance that McCoy would change mounts and hop on to Gordon Elliott-trained Cheltenham Festival winner Cause of Causes, who is also owned by the jockey’s boss, owner JP McManus.
McManus offered words of encouragement for Shutthefrontdoor when he said: ‘I always felt AP was going to ride Shutthefrontdoor as long as there were no hiccups in his preparation and he has had a great preparation.
‘Jonjo chose not to run him at the Cheltenham Festival. It was kind of a team decision to give AP the best chance of winning the National.
‘Some of the horses that run in the Gold Cup, or the handicaps, it can take a lot out of them.
‘If he wins, great, if he doesn’t, he has had a good preparation. It wasn’t lost in the boardroom.’
If there is one negative about McCoy’s mount it has to be his absence from the track and the fact he has only run once this season.
No winner this century has run less than three times during the campaign and all have had at least one outing in the calendar year.
The nature of the modern Grand National with its redesigned fences and classier contestants attracted by the megaprize means it has become an even tougher nut to crack than it used to be.
But four horses must be on your shortlist to consider — Rocky Creek, The Druids Nephew, Rubi Light, too big a price at 100-1, and Soll.
Because of recent wins, all would be carrying more pounds if the handicapper, who frames the weights for the race in February, could assess their chances again.
Four of the last 10 winners have carried at least 5lb less than they should have based on form produced after the weights were framed and that applies to all four of the above horses.
Rocky Creek could well be the horse which challenges Shutthefrontdoor closest for favouritism.
The Paul Nicholls-trained ed ninenine year-old was fifth last year off a poor preparation and has had an operation since to help his breathing.
Last year’s winner Pineau de Re, trained by former GP Dr Richard Newland, should run well again, while stablemate Royale Knight is a decent outsider.
Former Scottish National winners Al Co and Godsmejudge have the staying power and have been helped by the drying conditions.
After her sister-in-law Katie Walsh won Monday’s Irish National on Thunder And Roses, Nina Carberry is no forlorn hope on First Lieutenant, a talented gelding who has slightly lost his way.
But he could be lit up by the Aintree experience.
A first victory for a woman jockey would be sensational... almost as sensational as a final glorious afternoon for AP McCoy.
Almost, but not quite.