Bet on Rocky to knock out his big rivals
BACK a resurgent ROCKY CREEK
(Aintree, 4.15) to put the dampener on Tony McCoy’s Grand National dream this afternoon.
A summer breathing operation looks to have worked the oracle for the selection as he appeared a revitalised horse at Kempton last time when running away with the BetBright Chase.
There were very alarming moments for his supporters that day as he sauntered through a truly-run affair, jumping with great precision and enthusiasm.
In truth, Rocky Creek did much the same in last season’s National where his natural exuberance took him to the front four fences from home, a move which ultimately cost him as he faded into fifth behind winner Pineau De Re.
His breathing ailments may have contributed to his failings 12 months ago but with those hopefully remedied and, in the expectation he receives a slightly more conservative ride, Rocky Creek should go close to giving Paul Nicholls a second winner in the race.
In most other years, Rocky Creek would probably be a clear favourite, but the might of public support behind McCoy will probably ensure Shutthefrontdoor is sent off market leader.
Rocky Creek is reported to have been trained for just one race this term. But he must overcome a lengthy absence to land jump racing’s biggest prize and it’s worth noting that all of the last 18 winners ran between 16 and 56 days of today’s feature.
It goes without saying that Shutthefrontdoor is respected but, at his price, he is reluctantly overlooked in preference for the likes of Alvarado, Balthazar King and Night In Milan.
Both Alvarado and Balthazar King reached the frame 12 months ago and the former arguably has the capability to reverse the placings if ridden a little more prominently.
His stamina can’t be questioned but it is his rider’s way to try and ‘smuggle’ his mounts to appear late on the scene.
That has resulted in Paul Moloney boasting an enviable completion rate which has seen the Irishman finish fourth, third, fourth, fourth, second and fourth in the last six renewals.
With a clear round, Alvarado can be involved again along with old foe Balthazar King who has been given a different preparation this season with the National his connections’ priority No 1.
Supporting Night In Milan requires a little more imagination but, as a multiple Doncaster winner on good ground, conditions should be just about perfect. If he can find rhythm early on then he looks capable of a big race.
With winners since 2009 at 100-1, 33-1, 66-1 and last year at 25-1, there will be plenty of punters keen to back a big-price outsider. Mon Parrain may fit the criteria perfectly as he has already finished second over the National fences and is ridden by the supremely talented teenager Sean Bowen.