COULD DAVE NO

Tories set for 316 seats – so close to an overall majority

DAVID Cameron was on course last night to emulate Margaret Thatcher by increasing his grip on power while in office, as a shock exit poll predicted the Tories would win 316 seats.

It paves the way for the Tory leader to secure a second full term in office – and an In/Out referendum on the EU by the end of 2017.

Senior Conservatives hinted that the party could form a minority government if it performs as strongly as the exit poll suggests. The survey of 22,000 people, commissioned by the broadcasters, suggested the Conservatives would be close to the 323 seats needed for a working majority.

This would allow Mr Cameron to govern with the support of either the Lib Dems or the Democratic Unionists in Northern Ireland – or even go it alone without the help of either.

The forecast exceeds the hopes of even the most optimistic Tories, although it was contradicted by a smaller YouGov poll last night pre- dicting the party would win only 284 seats. If correct, it will be the first time a governing party has increased its number of seats since Mrs Thatcher in 1983 – providing a massive vindication for a Conservative campaign criticised by many for being bland.

Former Tory vice-chairman Michael Fabricant said: ‘If the exit polls are right, David Cameron can hold his head up high. To increase his vote at a time of economic difficulty is incredible.’ A senior Tory source described the poll as ‘very encouraging’, but warned the final outcome would depend on the result of dozens of very tight marginals. He added: ‘Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.’

Mr Cameron had been planning to declare ‘victory’ if his party won as few as 285 seats – well short of the 323 needed for a working majority.

Senior Tories have spent recent days comparing scenarios for coalitions or minority government. They believed Mr Cameron would need to win 290 seats – or at least 285 – to have a real- istic chance of clinging to power. But even with 316 seats, Mr Cameron will face a difficult task in securing the kind of stable majority he has had in coalition with the Lib Dems.

In theory he could do another deal with the Lib Dems. But if they are reduced to just ten seats then what is left of the party may decide to lick its wounds in opposition.

Mr Cameron could also do a deal with the Democratic Unionists, who are expected to win eight or nine seats. The DUP have indicated they want £1billion in extra funding for Northern Ireland, along with guarantees on defence spending.

Such a deal would probably be on a looser ‘confidence and supply’ basis, with the DUP guaranteeing to support the Tories on key votes such as the Queen’s Speech and the Budget.

But Mr Cameron also has to deal with an ‘awkward squad’ of at least 30 Tory MPs, who could combine with the opposition to defeat the Government on other measures – putting pressure on him to shift to the Right, particularly on Europe.

Any coalition deal would also face close scrutiny from the MPs of each party. Lib Dem party rules mean that any coalition deal has to be put to a special conference of party members.

Some senior figures, such as Charles Kennedy’s former parliamentary aide Andrew George, have already warned they would not support a deal with the Conservatives again.

Several prominent Tory right-wingers, such as the Eurosceptic MP Peter Bone, have said they would rather try to run a minority government than do a second coalition deal. Mr Cameron could present a Tory Queen’s Speech on May 27, even if he is unable to cobble together a coalition, and dare the other parties to vote it down.

John Whittingdale, vice-chairman of the 1922 committee of backbench MPs, told ITV: ‘If the exit poll is correct or in the region it suggests, the Conservative party will be just a few seats short of an overall majority.’ But he added: ‘There could also be other permutations’ and said Mr Cameron ‘ could put together a Queen’s Speech and hopefully other parties would not vote against it’.

‘An incredible result’