He wrote his own epitaph on an 8-foot tombstone
IF THE exit poll is correct, it is a victory every bit as stunning – and surprising – as John Major achieved in 1992.
And, just as in 1992, it will be a story of ‘shy Tories’ and opinion pollsters getting it spectacularly wrong.
Parallels will also inevitably be drawn between Neil Kinnock’s hubristic performance at the Sheffield rally on the eve of the election – when he triumphantly declared ‘we’re all right!’ – and Ed Miliband’s risible 8ft pledge stone.
Throughout the long and often tedious 2015 campaign, Tory strategists have harked back to the election 23 years ago when John Major snatched victory at the death. Then, the pollsters gave Labour the lead throughout and even the exit polls predicted a hung Parliament. But on the day, voters had thought long and hard about the dangers of electing a Leftwing leader who wanted to tax and spend – and decided to stick with Mr Major.
Yesterday, it appears they did the same as the Tory message about not allowing the even more Left-wing Mr Miliband to wreck the recovery hit home.
As the Mail’s eve-of-election poll revealed, a quarter of voters were prepared to decide on who to vote for, or change their minds, in the polling booth. Plainly, many did so – including, it seems, many of the Ukip sympathisers who were targeted by Mr Cameron in the closing days of the campaign. Others – the ‘shy Tories’ – appear to have simply been missed by the pollsters, who face a bruising post-mortem.
The Tory strategy of relentlessly emphasising the danger of a minority Labour Government, propped up the SNP, has also paid off.
Candidates have been reporting for the past two weeks it was cutting through on the doorstep, particularly in marginal seats in the Midlands and the North – where the idea of having to shovel more money to Scotland appalled electors.
Miliband tried to box his way out of this corner by insisting he would do no formal deal with Nicola Sturgeon, but it did not work – not least because the SNP leader was happy to play along with the Tory strategy.
She stated throughout that Mr Miliband would have to make a deal with the SNP or let the Tories in – and it was she who the voters believed. As a result, she has got precisely the victory she wanted – total domination in Scotland, and the opportunity to further divide the Union by complaining about the Scots being run remotely by Westminster Tories. And what of that ridiculous ‘Ed-stone’ stunt by Mr Miliband – who was yesterday pictured wearing bright, Tango-coloured makeup on his way to vote.
By unveiling a slab of rock he had already had engraved with meaningless pledges, ready to be installed in the No 10 garden, did he sharpen the public’s mind that he really might be on the verge of becoming PM?
Either way, it is a misjudgment he will never be allowed to forget – not least by the significant number of Labour MPs who will now be baying for his blood.
Mr Miliband’s many Blairite enemies are certain to demand that he be replaced with a candidate who will drag the party back to the centre ground.
They will ask, rightly, what more Red Ed can offer: he has played every populist, class-war card at his disposal – from energy price freezes to fixing private sector rents – and the public has apparently said No.
Mr Cameron, by contrast, will be seen to have confounded his own critics – including many in his own party unhappy with the lack of passion in the early stages of the campaign.
If the extraordinary exit poll is correct, the Tory leader’s path to a Commons majority is now relatively straightforward.
With 31 MPs, he would be able to get over the line with the support of the expected eight or nine Democratic Ulster Unionist MPs.
This would almost certainly be in a loose confidence and supply arrangement, where the unionists support Mr Cameron on his Queen’s Speech and other key votes.
The DUP have been clear what they want: up to £1billion of extra spending for Northern Ireland. But the Tories can point out that this is chicken feed compared to the £148 billion a Labour/SNP alliance would have cost Britain in extra borrowing alone.
The other option available to Mr Cameron is to once again form a Coalition or a loose relationship with what is left of the Lib Dems.
The question is, what do they have to offer Mr Cameron if they win only ten or so seats?