Will El Nino trigger a bitter winter?
AS WE bask in the warm sunshine, the bitter winter months seem a long way off.
But weather changes happening now over the Pacific may have an impact on temperatures in the UK in nine months.
Scientists last night announced a ‘major’ El Nino event was about to start over the eastern Pacific.
The last El Nino, which struck in late 2009, is thought to be one of the reasons the bitter winter lasted so long. Dramatic snowfall started in November – an event independent from the El Nino – but four months later Britain was still shivering in one of the most prolonged winters for decades.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said the biggest fallout from the event was likely to be soaring food prices as crops in the tropics suffer from drought.
He said it was too early to gauge the impact the weather phenomenon will have on Britain, but said it could affect temperatures in late winter.
‘In Britain we are a long way from the tropical Pacific – there is little basis in predicting the impact of weather so far away,’ he said.
‘There is a small increase in the risk of colder-than-average temperatures in late winter this year.’ Professor Scaife was more confident that the weather event will have a dramatic impact on the tropics – with the effect on agriculture and fisheries likely to drive up the cost of imports to Britain.
El Nino sees ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific near Peru rise because of a change in the normal wind direction.
The event affects the weather around the globe. It can cause droughts in some places, typhoons in others and is associated with an increased chance of blizzards in the Northern Hemisphere.
India, Western Africa and Australia are likely to become much drier, while there may be flooding and landslides in South America. ‘It can cause breaks in the monsoon and drought, while in eastern Australia there is a bigger risk of it being drier and warmer,’ Professor Scaife said.
‘The Peruvian fish industry can be devastated as the change in coastal wind direction prevents nutrient-rich water rising, leading to huge losses.’
David Jones, manager of climate monitoring and prediction at Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said: ‘This is a proper El Nino effect, it’s not a weak one.
‘There’s always a little bit of doubt when it comes to intensity forecasts, but across the models as a whole we’d suggest that this will be quite a substantial El Nino event.’