DO NOT PANIC, HE’LL BE FINE
Murray had the same ‘horror’ draw in 2013 and he won the title!
APPEARANCES can be deceptive when it comes to Grand Slam draws, as Andy Murray knows full well after his triumph at Wimbledon 2013.
When the names were pulled out prior to that event it looked like he was destined for a group of death.
Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga were lying in wait, poised to snuff out his chances of ending a 77- year wait for a British winner of the men’s singles.
Yet history tells us that, until he met Novak Djokovic in the final, Murray did not play anyone ranked higher than 20 (Mikhail Youznhy) as the seeds tumbled.
So reading too much into yesterday morning’s draw is dangerous, but does not alter the overall view that the 28-year-old Scot deserves to be rated as equal favourite alongside Djokovic, even if the bookies might not agree.
One thing we know for certain is that Murray cannot play the Serb until the final — something neither will be unhappy about.
Murray will also have noticed that his nemesis has a tricky draw right from the offff against Germany’s Philipphi l ipp Kohlschreiber. Someomebody might removeove Djokovic before he gets to the final, l, but even if that does not happen, it is not the worst time to play him.
While the World No 1 has won all five of his championship deciders s at the Australian an Open, he has had problems elsewhere.here. Djokovic has lost six out of his past sevenen finals away from Melbourne, the exception being at SW19 last year.
We wait to see if the disappointment of failing to win the French Open, his prime target for the year, has had any effect.
Neither he nor Murray have enjoyed success by looking too far ahead. They know that everybody who makes the second week will have been doing something right.
This Wimbledon, the players have had an extra week to get used to grass after Paris. Apart from Djokovic, most have played at least one tournament.
This is likely to mean fewer upsets, as a lack of familiarity with the eccentricities of the surface will be less of a leveller. Against that is the fact that Wimbledon’s courts tend to be slicker and more lush for the first four days than those at Queen’s, so there could yet be some tumbles.
Nadal might be among the beneficiaries of the longer gap, despite his early defeat at the Aegon Championships, as he tries to go beyond the fourth round for the first time since 2011. Strange to say, Nadal is among the lesser-known quantities this year but if he beats compatriot David Ferrer to make the quarterfinals he will be a serious threat.
Before that, Murray might have to beat Tsonga in the fourth round, although the Frenchman could struggle to get that far. He has not played since the French Open semifinal because of a groin problem and has a nightmare first-round draw against Luxembourg’s Gilles Muller.
Murray’s first opponent is Mikhail Kukushkin, the world No 58 from Kazakhstan. Together, they make up two-thirds of those in the men’s top 100 who are coached by women, Kukushkin by his wife Anastasia. The other man with a female coach is Denis Istomin of Uzbekistan. Roger Federer is seeded to reach the final and won the title in Halle last SundaSunday but his draw is not strstraightf orward. In the secondse round he is likellikely to meet Americancan Sam Querrey, a ppast winner at Queen’s who is in today’s Aegon Open final at NNottingham.
It is to be hoped that Murray is not Britain’s sole wwinner in a year wwhen there are ononly 10 home entrentrants due to fewer wwildcardsild being handed out. Serena WWilliams looks to have the rougher half of the draw as she attempts to become holder of all four women’s Grand Slam titles, including a potential thirdround clash with her sister Venus.
Victoria Azarenka might come after that and Maria Sharapova in the semi-final. Williams looks to be over the ailments that nearly derailed her in Paris but if she suffers some of the mental dips to which she is prone then matches can escape quicker on grass than on other surfaces.
Defending champion Petra Kvitova missed Eastbourne. The Czech has the talent but a possible fourth-round meeting with Poland’s Agnieszka Radwanska could be testing and she also has dangerous sleepers in her half of the draw such as American Madison Keys and Sabine Lisicki of Germany.
The women’s competition might not have the juicy potential matchups so easy to see among the men’s, but one suspects it will be less predictable.