Secondary school place timebomb

Pupil numbers predicted to rise 20% in ten years

SECONDARY schools are facing a places crisis with pupil numbers set to soar 20 per cent in a decade.

Headteachers will have to find a combined 547,000 extra spaces by 2024 as the swollen primary school population comes of age.

Increases in the birth rate since 2002 fuelled by high immigration will reverse a decline in secondary enrolment.

Official projections show the post-11 school population will surge 20 per cent from 2,740,000 to 3,287,000 in ten years. The number of children at primary level is expected to rise 8 per cent from 4,376,000 to 4,712,000.

Nearly 900,000 more places will be needed in all state-funded schools, including nurseries, following the 13 per cent growth of the school-age population to around 8.2million.

Teaching unions and campaigners say ministers are not prepared for the crisis.

‘The Government lacks a coherent plan,’ said Russell Hobby, of school leaders’ union NAHT.

‘Schools are also running low on money. An increase in pupil numbers is an added pressure on schools at a very difficult time.’ Nansi Ellis, of the Association of Teachers and Lecturers, said: ‘This should come as a massive wake-up call to the Government.

‘One of the largest challenges facing our education system will be ensuring there are enough schools and teachers to match the huge increase in children attending both primary and secondary schools in the next decade.

‘The stark reality is that in many parts of the country finding any school place is a challenge, let alone choosing one.’

Primary schools have been put under strain over the last six years as pupil numbers have risen steadily since 2009.

Due to the birth rate stabilising, the increase is set to slow in the coming years, although the number will still rise.

Secondary pupil numbers had been declining in England as a result of low birth rates in the 1990s, and are projected to be 2.7million in 2015, a fall of 9 per cent on 2004.

However, this trend is now set to reverse, placing pressure on the Government to provide new places quickly. Alan Smithers, professor of education at the University of Buckingham, said: ‘Essentially a bulge in the birth rate is flowing through the education system like a wave.

‘It was caused by the very high levels of immigration under the Blair government.

‘Not only have there been lots of arrivals in the country, but some have tended to have larger families. Another factor is women delaying giving birth, with more and more taking on high level careers.’

In March, almost half the children in some areas were denied their preferred secondary school.

A Department for Education spokesman said: ‘We recognise that as the population grows the demand for new school places increases.

‘That is why we doubled the funding for school places to £5billion in the last parliament, which has helped create almost 500,000 new school places.

‘A further £7billion has already been committed to create even more places over the next six years. With a million more pupils in good or outstanding schools compared to 2010, it is clear that schools and councils are responding well to the challenge.’