Deadly Dan means Wales CAN cope without Halfpenny
It’s fascinating how the absence of one ‘ star’ performer plays out for both his team and the opposition... as we are about to find out tomorrow night, when Leigh Halfpenny will be missing for Wales.
News of his serious knee injury against Italy in the last warm-up game sent Wales fans into the depths of depression, but in my experience these things are never quite as bad as they seem. And sometimes they actually work in your favour. that could well happen at twickenham tomorrow.
How many times in rugby do we see a pass go astray or go to ground in a set-play only for the attacking team to improvise on the spot and produce something special and rather splendid out of the chaos?
Of all the coaches I know, Warren Gatland is capable of flipping this situation on its head.
Fi r s t l y, let’s emphasise Halfpenny’s great merits and the potential loss to Wales. He is the world’s best and most reliable goal kicker, and he is not just a highpercentage kicker from short and medium range, he is also very consistent from long range — say 45 to 55 metres, either side of the halfway mark. Normally they are hit-and-hope efforts, but Halfpenny can really punish you.
His value is underlined by the fact that of all the world stars in their pomp, Halfpenny is the player toulon and Mourad Boudjellal were prepared to pay absolute top dollar for. Halfpenny is one of those players who will win you the biggest games and the money men know that as well as the rugby coaches.
so he is a great goal-kicker and also very sound and brave in defence. Wales might also miss that reliability under the high ball and courage in the tackle.
He started his career on the wing and has good pace — although injuries have taken their toll a little in that respect — but Halfpenny is now a good oldfashioned stopper at full back. Not a big guy, he dominates his space. He has a big presence.
All this Wales will miss. But what will they gain from Liam Williams coming in at full back? For me Williams is an outstanding talent who scores great tries and creates openings for the likes of George North and Hallam Amos. there is more of a touch of Andy Irvine and serge Blanco about Williams going forward.
things start happening very quickly when he has a bit of space and time. He has try- scoring, match-winning potential.
A Wales back three of Williams, North and Amos spells nothing but danger if England kick badly or Wales can get on the front foot and win their fair share of possession. If Wales are intending to play hightempo, high-risk rugby Williams is an extremely good player to have on board.
His defence is sound but probably not as good as Halfpenny and of course he is not a front-line goalkicker so now changed dynamics start coming into play.
Fly-half Dan Biggar is their marksman and from what I’ve seen he is a top-class front-line goalkicker, certainly for Ospreys and on those occasions when he has assumed goal-kicking for Wales. He’s not at Halfpenny’s level but he’s not a million miles away. the difference now though is that he is the go-to man.
that pressure can build if he misses one or two and how will that affect his play at fly-half, the pivotal position on the pitch?
If England can ‘get to’ Biggar, send big runners down his channel, will that unsettle him and his goal- kicking? the good news for Wales is that Halfpenny’s injury happened three weeks ago and Biggar has known for a while that extra burden is on his shoulders. so that’s the Welsh perspective, what about England? I’d say they will be a little bit cautious. With Halfpenny you know what you are getting. Williams is much more unpredictable and defensively they will have to be even more aware of the threat he poses.
England will test him with the high ball, but regardless of whether Halfpenny played or not the selection of Owen Farrell at 10 and sam Burgess at 13 suggests a high-pressure, territory dominated, kicking approach from England anyway.
And those long-range penalties? this could definitely be a factor but, again, I would suggest caution on England’s part.
they might now feel they can be more aggressive in defence around halfway and can afford to give a few penalties away there in the knowledge that they are unlikely to be punished so heavily. they can push to the limit at the set-pieces, rucks, mauls and tackle areas at that range. that, though, is an approach fraught with danger. there is never a good time to give penalties away in test rugby and England already cough up too many.
England have to keep that number consistently under 10. You get on the wrong side of referees, you lose momentum and individual players get into a position where they can be looking at yellow cards.
Just consider the consequences of giving up a few sloppy penalties 55m out. OK, there is no Halfpenny to step up and take three points, but if Biggar kicks well for the corner, Wales suddenly have a lineout 10 metres out with Alun Wyn Jones to aim for. By forcing their hand a little the consequences could be even more serious.
In short England should not give a moment’s thought to Halfpenny’s absence, great player that he is.
You play the 15 in front of you, not the team you might have expected to play.