Deal ‘not a certainty’

France and East Europe could still block PM’s demands as talks begin

EUROPEAN Council president Donald Tusk delivered a stark warning last night that there was ‘no guarantee’ a deal could be reached on David Cameron’s EU renegotiation.

Mr Tusk, who will lead a summit of leaders today in Brussels, admitted major obstacles remain to striking an agreement that would lead to a referendum in June.

France was last night threatening to block moves for Mr Cameron’s deal to be permanently protected in EU treaties, while Eastern European countries were still resisting curbs to migrant benefits. However, officials said leaders will stay locked in talks, which begin tonight, until an agreement is reached – potentially meaning they will drag on until the weekend.

In a letter to all 28 leaders, Mr Tusk, a former Polish prime minister, warned it was a ‘crucial moment for the unity’ of the EU.

‘After my consultations in the last hours I have to state frankly: there is still no guarantee that we will reach an agreement,’ he said.

‘We differ on some political issues and I am fully aware that it will be difficult to overcome them. Therefore I urge you to remain constructive.’

However, in a later interview with the BBC, Mr Tusk said he felt EU leaders would have ‘ no choice’ but to come to some sort of deal.

And in his letter, he warned EU leaders must ‘make use’ of the momentum. ‘There will not be a better time for a compromise,’ he said.

‘It is our unity that gives us strength and we must not lose this. It would be a defeat both for the UK and the European Union, but a geopolitical victory for those who seek to divide us.’

An EU diplomat last night said talks would continue as long as they needed to find consensus. ‘There’s a feeling around Brussels that if we don’t solve this now, we never will,’ he said.

However, a senior EU official said there were four main sticking points to a deal.

‘The question of incorporation of some of the changes into future EU treaties, the question of [euro] ins and outs, in particular the emergency brake [ on in- work benefits for migrants] and the question of the ever closer union,’ he said.

France last night launched an audacious last-minute bid to stop the deal being automatically incorporated into future revisions of the EU’s founding treaties.

Britain has warned that measures in the renegotiation package, such as curbs to migrant benefits and protections of the City of London, would be vulnerable to judicial challenge unless secured in the treaties.

While EU leaders have refused to revise the treaties immediately, the Prime Minister had hoped they would agree to automatically include the deal in them when they are next updated at some point in the next five years.

However, he is facing resistance

‘He’s got to get it’

from France and Belgium to the idea, with suggestions the reforms could be thrown out when the treaties are revised.

And yesterday, a French diplomatic source claimed that even if EU leaders agreed to include the changes in a treaty at a later date, this could still be blocked.

In some countries any changes have to be ratified by national parliaments and there can be no guarantee that they would be inclined to do so.

Last night, the British insisted Mr Cameron would fight off the move by French President Francois Hollande as it is one of his red lines that he achieves ‘a cast iron guarantee he will get treaty change’.

An EU diplomatic source last said: ‘It really matters to the PM and he will push it.’ The source warned that without treaty change Britain could be ‘sucked into’ a deeply-integrated Eurozone. ‘It is essential to have. He’s got to get it for the deal to work,’ he added.

Speaking in June, Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said: ‘We think some of the changes in particular that we’re demanding around availability of welfare benefits for new migrants from the EU can only be sustained against judicial attack in the European courts by treaty change.’

Eastern European countries have been fighting for cuts to child benefit for migrant workers whose offspring remain at home to be limited to newcomers. A diplomat from one of the Visegrad Four countries – Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary – said: ‘We agree with the indexation of child benefit, however it is important that we limit [that alone] and not for example unemployment benefits or pensions. Whether the measure applies to newly arrived ... is another question.’