Quitting EU ‘would cut migration by 116,000’
OECD ‘backs case for UK to control its borders’
THE migrant count in Britain will fall 1.3million by 2030 if voters opt to quit the EU, experts said last night.
Brexit could see David Cameron finally meet his pledge to cut net migration to tens of thousands a year, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
It also said foreigners allowed into the UK would have higher skill levels.
The Leave campaign said the intervention showed Britain could seize control of its borders only by voting out on June 23.
The OECD said economic growth would be lower than predicted if Britain left. As a result ‘net inward migration is assumed to decline by 84,000 a year’, although it could be as much as 116,000 a year.
It added: ‘The annual decline in net immigration was assumed to persist from 2019 onward, giving a total population decline of 1.3million by 2030.’
That would end the need to build two cities the size of Manchester to accommodate extra migrants. But George Osborne seized on the prediction that Brexit ‘would be a negative shock to the UK economy’. The report said it would knock 3.3 per cent off domestic output by 2020, costing every family £2,200.
It also found that, in an extreme scenario, leaving the EU could cost £5,000 per household by 2030.
Angel Gurria, the OECD secretary-general, described the cost of quitting the EU as a ‘Brexit tax’ on households.
Vote Leave said the OECD – which is partfunded by the EU – had made a series of ‘extremely pessimistic and unrealistic assumptions’, including that the UK will not strike a free trade deal with the EU or any other country.
The Chancellor was separately accused of talking down the economy after figures showed gross domestic product rose by just 0.4 per cent in the first quarter.
That was down from 0.6 per cent in the final three months of 2015 – fuelling fears that the recovery could be blown off course in the coming months.
Mr Osborne said: ‘It’s good news that Britain continues to grow, but there are warnings that the threat of leaving the EU is weighing on our economy.
‘Investments and building are being delayed, and another group of international experts, the OECD, confirms British families would be worse off if we leave the EU.’
Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at research group Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: ‘The EU referendum cannot be blamed for all of the economy’s ills.’ The Office for National Statistics, which published yesterday’s figures for the UK, said there was no evidence of a link between the slowdown and the referendum.
Armed Forces minister Penny Mordaunt, who wants to quit the EU, said: ‘At the core of the Remain campaign is the relentless hard sell that our country is a wet blanket. We are not.
‘If Britain were to look in the mirror it should be very proud of what it sees. We are a great nation, powerful, capable, connected and gen- erous, as are the British people. Our achievements and our ambitions are not contingent on the EU.’
A poll by Survation last night showed that support for Leave has risen by 2 per cent since March 24, defying predictions of a so-called Barack Obama bounce.
Remain now stands on 45 while Leave is on 38. Some 17 per cent undecided.
It is the second successive poll to suggest voters were unimpressed by the US President’s warning that
‘Pessimistic and unrealistic’
Britain would be sent to the ‘back of the queue’ for a trade deal if it voted out.
Europe’s open borders have allowed Islamic State to plant sleeper cells in Britain ready to carry out a Paris-style attack, a US security chief has warned.
James Clapper, who is the head of National Intelligence, called for better co- operation between EU member states and warned extremists had taken advantage of the migrant crisis to slip into Europe.