Mid-East jobs crisis could drive refugees to EU in huge numbers
THE migration crisis is likely to get dramatically worse because of a booming working age population and a dire shortage of jobs in the Middle East and North Africa, a major report says.
This could lead to more arrivals until at least 2030 with some potentially ‘importing’ terrorism and Middle Eastern conflicts into the ‘heart of Europe’.
Social unrest caused by mass unemployment in the region is also likely to tip more countries into civil war, leading to a new wave of refugees fleeing to Europe, said the report by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development.
Urgent action is needed to encourage private enterprise, provide more vocational education and improve women’s rights.
If this fails, the study warns: ‘The rise in refugee numbers from Middle
East and North Africa countries would also increase the danger of terrorist attacks and relocate the region’s conflicts to Europe.’
Despite an increase in education and social development in the area, only four in ten people aged 15 to 65 have jobs.
And five million more people are due to join the workforce every year until 2030, all fighting for a dwindling supply of jobs.
Unlike most countries, an increase in education has not helped boost economic development because of corruption, government bureaucracy and state controlled monopolies.
Reiner Klingholz, director of the institute, said: ‘In contrast to almost everywhere else in the globe, generally speaking the better the education you have the harder it is to find a job in these countries.
‘It means many feel they have many good reasons to leave because they believe they will find a job outside of the region, leading to a rise in economic migrants.
‘At the same time, having a large population of frustrated young people who are well educated but unable to get a job often spills into turmoil, revolution, political chaos and terrorism, and with it many more refugees. Egypt, Iraq, Yemen and Algeria are all on the edge and there is a risk one of these could end up as another Syria with all the tragic problems this brings.
‘Most refugees initially go to a neighbouring country with the hope of returning home soon, but after around three years with no peace, they usually move further afield, in most cases to Europe.
‘There is a real risk with the numbers of migrants involved that some will import terrorism and conflicts from their region into the heart of Europe.’
In Tunisia, over 28 per cent of people are aged between 15 and 29, and 51 per cent are under 30.
More than 70 per cent of Jordanians are under 30 and 22 per cent of the population is aged between 15 and 24.
And almost half of Yemen’s 26million people are under 18.
‘Corruption and bureaucracy’