MIGRATION FACTOR BOOSTS BREXIT

Fears over open borders put Out camp ahead in bombshell polls

PUBLIC concern about immigration has given a huge boost to the campaign to leave the EU, it emerged last night.

Two bombshell polls conducted by ICM, one of the country’s most respected polling organisations, yesterday showed a majority of voters now favouring Brexit.

They also showed huge swings to Leave in recent days as immigration dominated the news. The company conducted two polls for The Guardian, one online and one on the telephone, both of which put the Leave campaign in the lead.

Researchers polled 1,004 adults by phone and 2,052 adults online between May 27 and 29.

The phone poll showed the Brexit campaign was four points ahead – 52 per cent to 48 per cent if those saying they don’t know were excluded.

That represents a staggering 14 point reversal in just two weeks when Remain had a lead of 55 to 45. The online poll showed the same gap of four points if those who said they were unsure were taken out.

It follows a separate poll by ORB for the Daily Telegraph, published yesterday, showing support for Leave was up four points to 46 per cent among definite voters. Remain was on 51 per cent.

The five-point gap in that poll is down from 13 points in a week in which immigration was the dominant issue in the referendum debate. Last week saw the release of two sets of statistics showing record numbers of migrants coming from the EU and the impact of population growth on different parts of the country.

They sparked widespread fears about the ‘ open door’ to EU migrants and the impact on public services and wages in the UK. And they blew a huge hole in the Government’s pledge to cut net migration to the ‘tens of thousands’.

Leaders of the Leave campaign, including Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Priti Patel, have also focused their attacks on the Government’s failure to meet its target for net migration.

Another poll showed 58 per cent of the public believe David Cameron would have to quit as Prime Minister if his Remain side loses the referendum on June 23. The Evening Standard poll, by BMG Research, also showed Mr Johnson is far and away the favourite to take over as PM in the event of Mr Cameron standing aside.

The poll showed 39 per cent believe Mr Cameron would have to quit on the spot if the vote went in favour of Brexit, and a further 19 per cent believe he would have to go within a year. Migration statistics released last week showed a record number of jobless EU migrants were moving to Britain. That helped push migrant totals from the continent to an all-time high.

Official figures showed the total number of EU nationals coming here under freedom-of-movement rules hit 270,000 last year. That includes a record 77,000 who came without a job offer. It also included a record number of arrivals from Romania and Bulgaria, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Net EU migration – taking into account the number of European Union citizens who left the UK – was 184,000, equivalent to a town the size of Colchester. Overall net migration, including those from outside the EU, was 333,000 in the year to December, the second highest annual level on record.

Separate population statistics revealed how different parts of the country would see huge population growth in the coming years, in part caused by the migrant influx.

London’s population is set to surge 13.7 per cent to almost 10million by 2024, as migrants help add four million to the population of England in only eight years.

Sir Lynton Crosby, who masterminded the Tory general election victory, said the focus on migration helped boost the Leave campaign. He told the Telegraph the ‘increasing focus on lack of control over immigration’ had helped the case for Leave. ÷ Wealthy hedge funds are trying to make a killing from the result of the June 23 vote by commissioning private exit polls during the day and then betting on the price of sterling.

Many financial analysts believe a Brexit vote will spark a short-term fall in the value of the pound, holding out the prospect of a major windfall for speculators.

Unlike in general elections, no public exit poll will be carried out. Now hedge funds and investment banks are trying to gain an advantage on rivals on the day by commissioning their own.

Electoral law allows exit polls on the day but forbids them being published before the polls close.

‘Lack of control on immigration’