STEPHEN GLOVER

EVERY day we are told the British Government is entering Brexit negotiations with little idea of what it wants. The Labour Party grows hysterical about the alleged lack of any plan.

Some claim that even if we had a plan we would be crushed by the combined weight of 27 EU members, which are supposed to be infinitely more powerful than us, and determined to drive a hard and unpleasant bargain.

When the prime minister of minuscule Malta suggested a few days ago that the EU was immovable, his comments were gleefully reported by the BBC and other anti-Brexit media outlets. Joseph Muscat effectively said there wasn’t a cat’s chance in Hell of our having access to the single market while restricting free movement of labour.

Sometimes it seems intransigent Remainers actually want negotiations to founder so that Brexit can be universally recognised as a total disaster. They fail to grasp that, whether stayers or leavers, we are now all in this together, and it is in our common interest that the Government obtains the best possible deal.

Strong

And, in fact, I believe there are good reasons for thinking that Britain holds many more cards than is generally accepted. We are in several respects much more indispensable than is usually assumed, while the EU is probably in no state to hang this country out to dry.

Oddly enough, these two insights surfaced in yesterday’s Financial Times, which has shed more tears over the referendum result, and incubated more gloom, than any other newspaper. It ran a piece reporting that British negotiators believe they have a strong hand to play, and it suggested they had good reason for doing so.

To be sure, the Civil Service was ill-prepared for the outcome of the referendum, having taken for granted, like nearly the entire political class, a Remain victory. Whitehall’s most senior official, Sir Jeremy Heywood, is said to have gathered his top team together in the aftermath of the vote and asked pathetically, ‘What is our leverage?’, only to be met by blank faces.

But five months have passed, and much work has been done. Senior civil servants who neither expected nor wanted Brexit have had its inevitability drummed into their skulls by ministers. As the FT points out, it is dawning on them that Britain has a lot of leverage.

Look at the economic and political mood of Europe. As Philip Hammond mentioned in last week’s Autumn Statement, this year the British economy (whose immediate collapse was confidently predicted by his predecessor, George Osborne) will grow more quickly than the EU’s three other large economies — Germany, France and Italy.

Even taking into account the doggedly pessimistic cast of mind of the Office for Budget Responsibility, next year the UK is expected to grow more than either Italy or France.

All this means that an economically enfeebled European Union is in no position to attempt to strangle the British economy, since such a misguided act of vandalism would only make its own predicament more precarious. About a fifth of all German car production comes to the UK. Will Berlin really risk damaging this by imposing import tariffs on us?

That much was appreciated during the referendum. What has changed since then is the increasing political uncertainty in several European countries, which is likely to further undermine any appetite the EU might have for a fight to the death with Britain.

Next Sunday, Italy will vote on various constitutional issues. Its prime minister, Matteo Renzi, has said he will resign if he loses, which appears likely. Italy’s near-bankrupt banks would then be scrutinised even further by the markets. Meanwhile, polls suggest the next prime minister would come from the Five Star Movement, which is committed to a referendum on Italy’s membership of the euro.

If Italy is entering a period of political turbulence, so too is France, which will have presidential elections next spring. Its next president could be the far-Right Marine Le Pen, who might take France out of the EU. Or it may be the centre-Right Francois Fillon, whose Thatcherite economics, reputed Anglophilia and anti-EU sentiments could work to Britain’s advantage.

Political turmoil may also ensue in Austria, where presidential elections take place on Sunday. In a contest considered too close to call, the far-Right candidate Norbert Hofer has said he may agitate for a referendum on EU membership.

In these and other European countries, there is a potent combination of shaky economic performance and populist movements. Is it likely that an EU in such a weak and confused condition will come together with the specific intention of punishing Britain? I don’t believe so.

Of course, some European politicians — especially in Brussels — like to talk tough. Last week, arch-federalist Guy verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s chief negotiator for forthcoming talks, tried to put Brexit Secretary David Davis in his place by saying: ‘Welcome to Hell.’

Like many generals on the eve of battle, these politicians will strive to demoralise us and insist that Britain should expect a poor deal. These are classic negotiating tactics. We should simply ask how many aces they have up their sleeves. The answer is: many fewer than they like to pretend.

Solidarity

And it should be stressed that for every Guy verhofstadt or Maltese prime minister putting on war paint, there are just as many, if not more, EU leaders who like and admire this country and have no wish to make us suffer.

A month ago, Sweden’s finance minister, Magdalena Andersson, declared it would be a serious mistake to chastise Britain for voting to leave the EU, and appealed for an amicable settlement to minimise damage to both sides.

Yesterday, Theresa May held talks with the Polish prime minister, Beata Szydlo, who had earlier written in a newspaper that the EU must be prepared to compromise to secure a Brexit deal that works for everyone. Ms Szydlo promised Poland would be a ‘constructive’ partner.

Such sentiments are based on common sense and a remembered shared solidarity against Nazi Germany — and also, crucially, on an awareness of Britain’s vital security and defence contribution to the EU even after it leaves.

Mrs May confirmed we will be sending 150 troops and a number of armoured vehicles to patrol in north- east Poland, close to the border with Kaliningrad, which houses Russia’s Baltic fleet. A gesture, perhaps, but a significant one.

Destiny

The perception of an increasing Russian threat to Eastern Europe has already led to four RAF Typhoon aircraft being sent to Romania, and some 800 British personnel with armoured support being dispatched to Estonia.

In a way he could not have predicted, the bellicosity of President vladimir Putin is aiding Brexit, for members of the EU (nearly all of whom spend less on their defence than they should) regard Britain as an indispensable ally.

They know, too — and even the competitive French are forced in private to admit it — that in GCHQ at Cheltenham, Britain has an intelligence facility which helps protect the whole of Europe and is unmatched anywhere on the Continent.

Moreover, with Presidentelect Donald Trump opining that Nato is ‘obsolete’, the role of Britain as the leading European military power becomes ever-more important in the minds of our EU friends.

Are they really going to try to grab us by the throat? Political peacocks such as Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, might like to, but sensible political leaders who are grounded in the real world, and answerable to voters, will act like grown-ups.

Enough of all this gloom! Of course negotiations will be prolonged and sometimes fraught. But Europe needs us in more ways than one, and the truth is that the EU is in no condition to punish us for daring to seize our own destiny.