James Slack’s analysis of what it all means
WHAT IT SAYS: It would be ‘problematic for EU if we move decisively with no transition’. Michel Barnier (the EU’s chief negotiator) wants to see what deal looks like first. WHAT IT COULD
MEAN: Transition is a reference to the UK remaining tied to the EU for longer than the two-year Article 50 formal negotiating period. Instead of Britain quitting in March 2019, the process would be more gradual – giving firms in the UK and Europe more time to adjust.
WHAT IT SAYS: A deal on manufacturing is ‘relatively straightforward’. ‘Services harder because French hoping for business.’ WHAT IT COULD MEAN:
Britain fears the French are hoping to steal business from the City and encourage financial firms to relocate. But Brexit backers have long been confident of a good deal for UK manufacturers. The EU exports more to us than we do to them – meaning they have more to lose.
WHAT IT SAYS: The UK is looking at a Canadian deal & add to it’ WHAT IT COULD MEAN:
Free trade deal was struck between Canada and the EU last month after seven years of wrangling. The deal removes 99 per cent of tariffs on goods. But the painstakingly negotiated accord was nearly scuppered by the tiny Walloon region in French-speaking southern Belgium, which initially refused to back it over fears it would harm farmers.
WHAT IT SAYS: French likely to be most difficult.
WHAT IT COULD MEAN: No surprise to learn that France is considered the EU country most likely to cause trouble. It is the leading voice demanding that Britain should be punished for voting Brexit in order to set an example to other countries which might be tempted to hold a referendum.
WHAT IT SAYS: We think it’s unlikely we’ll be offered single market. Our criteria are clear - more open the better. WHAT IT COULD
MEAN: Britain will not be a member of the single market (which would almost certainly mean open borders). Instead, it wants the maximum possible access while taking back control of our borders and laws. The Prime Minister has said the UK wants to trade ‘with and operate in’ the single market.
WHAT IT SAYS: ‘Transitional - loathe to do it. Whitehall will hold on to it. We need to bring an end to the negotiation.’ WHAT IT COULD
MEAN: While the idea to delay Brexit is being pushed by Treasury officials and the governor of the Bank of England, many in Government are nervous. It would mean the UK having to delay taking back control of laws and borders as Whitehall plays the long game to frustrate Brexit.
WHAT IT SAYS: Trade with EU through Dexu not DIT. WHAT IT COULD MEAN.
Dexu is a reference to the Brexit department, run by David Davis. DIT is the international trade department, headed by Liam Fox. The memo appears to point out a clear dividing line between the two men – with Mr Fox permitted to strike deals outside of the EU only. Whitehall has been awash with rumours – denied by all sides – of Brexit turf wars.
WHAT IT SAYS: What’s the model? Have cake and eat it.’
WHAT IT COULD MEAN: This is the stated position of Boris Johnson. Effectively, it means that Britain will seek to get the best possible trade deal with Europe – but without having to allow free movement of EU citizens, pay billions to Brussels every year or abide by the rulings of the European Court of Justice. EU leaders have so far insisted this is unacceptable.