Corbyn has lost 44% of Labour voters from 2015
JEREMY Corbyn has lost nearly half the voters who backed Labour in 2015 under Ed Miliband, an analysis by the fabian Society has shown.
four million voters – 44 per cent of those supporting the party just a year and a half ago – have deserted it.
The study, using YouGov data, predicts Mr Corbyn could lose around 90 MPs, taking Labour to below 200 seats for the first time in more than 80 years.
It came as Unite boss Len McCluskey, one of Mr Corbyn’s closest allies, warned the Labour leader would have to quit if poll ratings did not improve by 2019.
‘Let’s suppose we are not having a snap election – it buys into this question of what happens if we get to 2019 and opinion polls are still awful,’ he told the Mirror. ‘The truth is everybody would examine that situation, including Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell … they are not desperate to cling on to power for power’s sake.’
Today’s report by the fabian Society, a moderate Labour-supporting think-tank, warns that the party has almost no chance of winning the next election.
The Blairite-affiliated group said it had become unthinkable that Labour could govern alone and urged it to form a centreLeft coalition with other parties. The swing required by Labour to win the next general election will be 8.7 per cent – almost double the 4.6 per cent threshold it required – and failed to get – at the last general election.
The fabian Society’s Andrew Harrop said: ‘Labour is around twice as far from victory as it was in the run-up to 2015 … As things stand, Labour is on track to win fewer than 200 seats, whether the next election comes this year or in 2020.
‘Even if Labour recovers it has almost no chance of securing a majority in a general election, because it needs over three million more votes than the Conservatives to win.’
The report predicts Labour is likely to win 140 to 200 big city and ex-industrial constituencies if its share of the vote falls to 20 per cent, which would be a further retreat from the 231 seats it currently holds.
It warns that at the next election, Labour could hold no seats in Scotland – it only has one at present – and there are no signs of the Scottish party successfully fighting the SNP landslide.
Only the first-past-the-post system saves Labour from wipeout, meaning it will almost certainly remain the main opposition party – the Lib Dems or Ukip could only break through if they won many more votes than Labour nationally.
A poll for the Times by YouGov yesterday put Labour support at a record low for eight years – just 24 per cent. The Tories were at 39 per cent, Ukip 14 per cent and the Lib Dems 12 per cent.
‘Twice as far from victory’