A Tory triumph and humbling of the SNP
THIS was the night of the long claymores. Scots voters scythed down Alex Salmond, that tallest of tartan poppies, and 20 of his separatist pals.
The General Election result north of the border was eye-poppingly savage and, in its way, thumpingly decisive. And on a night of crisis at Westminster, for those of a unionist persuasion it provided a moment of cheer.
Where Theresa May fell short, the seemingly unstoppable Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party, delivered in spades. Thanks to her, ‘Tory’ is no longer a dirty word in Scotland: the party doubled its share of the vote to 28.6pc, and leapt from one seat to 13. It was their best result since 1983.
Aged just 38, and arguably the most successful and popular Conservative in Britain, Miss Davidson looks to have a very big future ahead of her. In a party desperately short of star power, she glitters all the more brightly.
The result means Scottish politics has changed utterly. The message has been sent loud and clear that a second independence referendum is not wanted, and that the SNP’s failure to get to grips with declining school performance and poor public services will not do.
Nicola Sturgeon has been put on notice: up your game or at the next Holyrood elections in 2021, you could be out on your ear.
There was no mercy shown on a night when reputation counted for nothing. Salmond lost to Tory Colin Clark, who in his victory speech declared ‘the silent majority have spoken — we’re proud to be part of the United Kingdom’.
And that wasn’t just hyperbole. In 2015, the share of the vote won by pro-UK parties in Scotland was 48.7pc. On Thursday, it was more than 61pc.
A bigger blow to the Nationalists came when Angus Robertson, their impressive leader at Westminster, was turfed out of his Moray seat.
Across the North, the central belt and the Borders, large, often five-digit majorities won just two years ago were swept away in the electoral whirlwind.
Those separatists who survived often did so by the skin of their teeth: Stephen Gethins held on to North East Fife by just two votes over the Lib Dems after three recounts. In Perth, Pete Wishart won by 21 votes.
If this isn’t quite the end of the SNP — they retained 35 of their 56 seats — it is undoubtedly the beginning of the end.
After a decade in power in Edinburgh, and the spell of prolonged mass popularity that followed 2014’s independence referendum, the Nats are on the wane.
It is the age-old problem of what happens when a passionate political movement actually wins power — and is exposed as being illequipped to run a whelk stall.
Reports have shown that literacy and numeracy levels are falling among Scottish children, despite Miss Sturgeon’s promise to make education reform the centrepiece of her administration.
In the end, her measures have been timid and unconvincing, largely because she is wary of alienating Left- wing teaching unions and public-sector workers who she hopes will support the break-up of Britain in a second referendum. The ultimate goal of independence has consistently acted as a block on the hard, thankless business of effective government. Finally, the Scots have woken up to this.
Yet the First Minister is no fool. In an unusually muted speech at her official Bute House residence in Edinburgh yesterday, she hinted that a second referendum will now be put on the backburner.
‘Undoubtedly, the issue of an independence referendum was a factor in this election result,’ she said. ‘I’m going to reflect carefully on the result and going to take some time to do that.’
She recognised ‘a desire to bring people together and find a way forward that was rooted in consensus. I recognise my responsibilities as First Minister to play my part in that, and for that to be very much in the forefront of my mind.’
As welcome as this would be if it were genuinely her choice, in truth Miss Sturgeon has little option.
Ruth Davidson’s success is in large part down to positioning her party as doughty defenders of the Union, while Labour and the Lib Dems have wobbled on the issue. She has repeatedly criticised Sturgeon for allowing her constitutional obsession to get in the way of the day job. Voters are clearly finding these arguments compelling, and it appears they could be losing faith in the SNP.
If the Nats’ fall from grace continues at such a brisk pace, there is an outside possibility that Miss Davidson’s momentum could carry her all the way to Bute House in four years time.
It will also worry the SNP that Scottish Labour is showing signs of life: after years in the doldrums, the party that gave Britain major figures such as Gordon Brown and John Smith has begun competing for left-of-centre votes again.
Having lost all of its Westminster seats but one in 2015, it secured seven in Thursday’s poll, giving a much- needed fillip to Kezia Dugdale, its leader at Holyrood.
The Lib Dems, who had also been cut to a single seat last time around, increased their haul to four.
Until now, to borrow Ken Clarke’s phrase about Theresa May, Miss Sturgeon has played the role of ‘ bloody difficult woman’ in her relationship with the PM.
She has demanded a special Brexit deal for Scotland that would allow continued access to the single market, and threatened a new independence referendum if her demands are not met.
Now, I suspect, Mrs May will find that Ruth Davidson can also be bloody difficult. The Scottish Tory leader does not share the Prime Minister’s hardline take on leaving the EU, her desire to heavily restrict immigration, or her attachment to grammar schools.
And the moral authority and political muscle now wielded by Davidson will make it hard for Mrs May to wave away her concerns: remember, without the 13 seats secured in Scotland, the Prime Minister would not be back in Downing Street today.
One question will linger: just how far can Davidson go? It’s not hard to think of this gifted Scot one day walking over the threshold of No 10 and calling it home.
Ill-equipped to run a whelk stall