SO WHAT COULD WE END UP WITH?
The Norway Model
MEMBERSHIP of the European Economic Area (EEA) would put Britain in a group alongside Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, and is what Remainers mean when they talk about staying in the ‘single market’. It would keep existing trading rules but take Britain out of the Common Agricultural Policy. However, we would also have to swallow EU laws without being able to influence them, accept rulings by European judges and carry on paying into the budget (Norway’s fee is estimated at around 90 per cent of the UK’s per person). Uncontrolled immigration would continue. Unacceptable to Tory Eurosceptics.
The Swiss Model
A SORT of EEA minus. The Swiss are members of the European Free Trade Association but not the EEA. They have a series of bilateral trade deals with the EU, which cover trade in goods but very little in services such as banking. The Swiss can negotiate trade deals with third countries, but also make a huge financial contribution to the EU. They are inside the passport-free Schengen zone and have to accept free movement. This option is also toxic for Eurosceptics.
The Ukraine Model
A JANUARY 2016 agreement between the EU and the Ukraine could form the basis for the UK deal. It includes trade market access and co-operation on defence and security but doesn’t require free movement or the application of EU law. How- ever, the UK would also require a deal on financial services.
PM’s ‘free trade deal’
IN January the Prime Minister said she wanted a ‘deep and special partnership’ covering trade and security. At the same time she says – echoing the Leave campaign – that Britain should take back control of its laws, borders and money. That means no acceptance of EU laws, no more free movement and an end to ‘vast contributions’ to the EU budget. Open issues include immigration rules, how much the UK pays to belong to EU agencies such as Europol, the ‘divorce bill’ and what the new trade rules are. The time it takes to implement such a deal could give Mrs May room for manoeuvre.
No deal
BRITAIN would revert to World Trade Organisation rules – meaning tariffs on some goods and services. Likely to mean no ‘passporting’ rights for the City of London to trade on the continent. It would create a legal and administrative vacuum on the rights of EU nationals in the UK and British ex-pats, the Irish border, security co-operation, and deals on aviation, agriculture and fishing. Chaotic in the short term.