Home Office estimates 150,000 illegals a year
True scale of influx ‘has been hidden’ Numbers may even grow post-Brexit Only 1 in 1,000 chance of being deported
A DAMNING report claims illegal immigration in Britain may be running at 150,000 a year.
It says the true scale of those here unlawfully is being hidden because the Home Office estimates have been held back.
The paper also warns of a possible ‘surge’ once legal migration from the EU is curbed following Brexit.
The most recent official figures show net migration – the difference between those leaving and arriving in the UK lawfully – stands at 273,000.
But the report suggests, when illegal migrants are included, this figure may be much higher.
Theresa May has pledged to cut immigration to the tens of thousands by 2022.
But a damning report warns that unless there is a dramatic change of approach her pledge will be impossible to meet.
The stark assessment comes from former immigration chief David Wood and alasdair Palmer, a speechwriter to Mrs May when she was Home Secretary. The pair claim immigration to the UK is far higher than official statistics, with a ‘glaring gap’ between what ministers say and the reality.
They wrote: ‘Until the reality is honestly recognised, there is no possibility that immigration into Britain will be diminished by any Government policy.’
Mr Wood, a former director general of immigration enforcement, said the Home Office privately estimates 150,000 illegal immigrants are living in Britain every year – around the same as the population of Poole in Dorset.
Unlawful entrants include those who have overstayed their visa limit, asylum rejects and those who arrived with no legal entitlement in the first place.
Publicly the Home Office has insisted there are no accurate figures for illegal immigration. The report warns the situation is ‘almost certainly going to get significantly worse’ when Britain leaves the EU.
Migrants from central and eastern European countries will still have strong motives to move to Britain, where they can earn more than in their home countries. The report warns: ‘The principle effect of leaving the EU will therefore be to create a whole new class of illegal immigrants to the UK – migrants who are geographically far closer to the UK than those from developing countries.’
They add: ‘Without effective enforcement of immigration laws and regulations, the result of Brexit won’t be that we “take back control” of our borders, as the Prime Minister has promised. It will be a surge in illegal immigration.’ The paper, titled The Politics Of Fantasy and published by the think-tank Civitas, pointed the finger at poor immigration controls. It said: ‘The resources devoted by the Government to enforcement are just too small to enable officials to keep track of foreign nationals, to monitor who is permitted to be here and to deport those who are not.’
The report claimed the chance of a migrant being detained and deported for overstaying their visa is about one in a thousand.
It says ineffective border controls can be worse than none at all because the country receives no tax benefit from illegal migrants but pays for the cost of ‘creating a new and very large class of criminals’. The paper fuels allegations that calculations which could inform the debate around immigration have been ‘deliberately suppressed’.
The report says: ‘The Home Office has not published any estimate of illegal immigration since 2005. It has produced further estimates – but for internal consumption only.
The authors argue it is ‘obviously wrong’ not to release the figures, adding: ‘Keeping them secret may save ministers from embarrassment. But it makes proper policy planning impossible.’
Official statisticians have said it is impossible to accurately quantify the number of people in the country unlawfully.
In an estimate 12 years ago, a Home Office assessment put the total unauthorised migrant population living in the UK in 2001 at 430,000. Net migration figures are based on a survey of passengers. Immigration Minister Brandon Lewis said it was ‘ harder than ever’ for those with no right to be here to remain in the UK.
He said the Government would use Brexit an opportunity to ‘take control of immigration’.
‘No effective enforcement’
THIS paper has long argued that official migration figures are a gross underestimate, for one simple reason: they fail to capture those who are in Britain unlawfully.
Now we have the proof. A damning report co-authored by David Wood, a former Home Office border chief, reveals that illegal immigration may be as high as 150,000 a year.
Some have overstayed their visas while many others have sneaked in undetected. This means annual net migration, which the Office For National Statistics puts at 273,000, is in fact significantly higher.
Is it any wonder the NHS, schools, public services and housing are under such extraordinary pressures? Or that social cohesion in some communities has never been more frayed?
The report also exposes how broken our immigration system is. Only one migrant in a thousand who overstays their visa is detained and deported… immigration rules are not enforced properly… and it costs £18,000 to remove a single foreign national.
But worst of all, the report says the 150,000 figure is well known within the Home Office but has been ‘deliberately suppressed’. It is hard to imagine a more serious accusation.
As ministers prepare to begin Brexit talks next week, it is further evidence of how urgent and essential is the task of restoring proper controls to our horribly porous borders.