A GIANT STEP FORWARD, BUT...
EXIT TIMING
BRITAIN will formally leave the EU at 11pm on March 29 next year, but will then enter a transition phase during which little will change.
Ministers say this period – which will last for 21 months and end on December 31, 2020 – is needed to give business certainty. Remain- supporting Cabinet ministers and Treasury officials lobbied for a longer period lasting for at least five years, but Mrs May stuck to two years, and the final timing was decided as much as anything by the end of the EU’s annual budget cycle. VERDICT: DRAW
FREEDOM TO SIGN TRADE DEALS
DURING the transition period, Britain will be free to negotiate, sign and ratify new trade deals with non-EU countries – which are predicted to account for 90 per cent of future global growth. This was not contained in the EU’s draft proposals but was insisted upon by negotiators so Britain can begin to seize one of the great opportunities of Brexit. As David Davis said yesterday, this will mean the chance of new deals with ‘old friends and new allies around the globe for the first time in more than 40 years’. VERDICT: UK WINS
FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT
ALTHOUGH free movement will formally end next March, EU nationals will in effect keep all their rights to come to Britain – and settle – until the end of 2020. They will also be free to bring in family members, but will have to register with the Home Office.
Only weeks ago, Mrs May stuck her neck out by publicly stating her determination to secure a win – but in the end had to settle for reciprocal rights for UK nationals in the EU. According to the MigrationWatch think-tank it could mean an additional million new arrivals. VERDICT: UK LOSES OUT
FISHING
IN A major disappointment for fishermen – and Leave supporters – Britain will have to wait another year to decide its own fishing policy, and during 2019 we will in effect stay in the Common Fisheries Policy.
Ministers have won the right to be ‘consulted’ on how the catch is divided up, and the UK’s share of the fish caught will not fall. However, the failure to take back control of a totemic Brexit issue has enraged Leavers and particularly Scottish Tories. Mrs May’s concession yesterday will heap pressure on her not to give in on fishing in the final deal. VERDICT: UK LOSES OUT
NORTHERN IRELAND AND THE BORDER
STILL the thorniest issue in the talks. The EU proposes as a ‘backstop’ keeping Northern Ireland in the customs union after Brexit. That has enraged Tory MPs and the DUP as it would create a customs border in the Irish Sea and effectively divide the UK.
Drawing a clear red line, Mrs May said it was something ‘no UK prime minister could ever agree’. This section of the agreement remains in the official papers, but has not been agreed.
Nor is there any obvious sign of how it can be resolved, meaning the can has been kicked down the road. VERDICT: DRAW
GIBRALTAR
EU negotiator Michel Barnier yesterday claimed Spain’s veto over the deal remained in place, but despite reports suggesting Gibraltar would not be covered by the deal, it is explicitly included in its territorial scope. VERDICT: UK WINS