I predict Brexit will trigger the collapse of two-party politics

WHEN historians look back at this momentous week, they will struggle to choose which was the most important event.

There was Donald Trump’s first visit to Britain as president and his characteristically belligerent intervention in the Brexit debate.

Also, we saw the dramatic resignations from Cabinet of Boris Johnson and David Davis.

These two cheerleaders for Leave walked out in protest against Theresa May’s White Paper which sets out how she hopes Britain will quit the EU but which both men believe betrays the wishes of the 17 million people who voted for Brexit.

However, I believe that future historians will conclude that the most significant event this week was a little-reported meeting that took place in a Westminster committee room on Monday afternoon.

In the sweltering heat, Mrs May’s de facto deputy, David Lidington, briefed opposition MPs and peers about the White Paper in the hope of gaining their support for her Brexit negotiating strategy.

This meeting — described as ‘surreal’ by one Labour MP present — was unprecedented.

For the corralling of cross-party support for a government policy at a time when the country is not at war is very rare.

But Lidington’s overture signalled a need by ministers desperate for a Brexit solution to have a temporary ceasefire that would be impossible to achieve in the confrontational form of politics that has been the norm in Britain for more than two centuries.

I would go further and suggest that rather than a temporary phenomenon, we could witness the collapse of age-old party divisions in British politics.

FOR the indisputable fact is that Brexit is destroying the traditional two-party system which has seen either a Labour or a Tory government (or a coalition) ever since the collapse of the Liberals as a major force more than a century ago.

Convulsed by disagreements over Britain’s future relationship with the EU, the Conservative Party is deeply divided between those who want a hard Brexit and those instinctive Remainers who are adamant that the break from Brussels is as soft as possible.

Labour, too, is irrevocably split, with MPs representing constituencies which voted Leave battling against a phalanx of passionately pro-EU MPs who will do anything to frustrate Brexit.

I estimate that there are about 90 Brexiteer Tory MPs who may defy Mrs May. On the other side, Jeremy Corbyn faces a similar number of Labour rebels — MPs who, on Brexit, are ideologically closer to the 90 Tory malcontents. For the fact is that seven in ten Labour-held seats voted Leave and the MPs who represent them feel duty-bound to back their constituents’ wishes.

As a result, I predict that we could see the emergence of a new political landscape.

The two-party mould that has served British politics well for so long will first be broken by the creation of a specifically proEuropean party, which could attract leading Remainers such as the Tories’ Nicky Morgan and Labour’s Chuka Umunna.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the debate, rather than a separate pro-Brexit party, I can see the rise of a number of anti- EU nationalist groups. They will be a motley bunch — straddling a wide political spectrum and include those on the Left who want to destroy the capitalist system and those from the Right who are free marketeers.

Ironically, this could mean Labour’s Marxist shadow chancellor John McDonnell and Jacob Rees-Mogg, an Old Etonian Tory who made a fortune in City fund management, becoming unlikely bedfellows. Of course, this would purely be a marriage of convenience.

You may think this scenario that I’m suggesting is crazy. But do not rule out the prospect that ReesMogg and McDonnell could join together to fight for a united vision of Britain outside the EU — albeit for very different core motives.

Of course, there is a precedent for such a cross-party alliance.

In the early 1970s, Harold Wilson’s Labour and Edward Heath’s Tories were both split over whether Britain should join the European Economic Community — a trade agreement that was the early version of the European Union.

This led to an unlikely alliance between Socialist Michael Foot (who abhorred the removal of power from the British people to Brussels) and right-winger Enoch Powell (who warned about Britain becoming a province of a European superstate).

During debates over Britain’s membership of the EEC, there were a series of votes in the Commons during which MPs on both sides rebelled against their party leadership.

Eventually, Wilson’s government decided to join the EEC and the two-party system re- established itself.

But this time, I doubt, after Brexit, that the normal order will be restored. Feelings are running so high and emotions so passionate that the two-party system — that is currently much more fragile than it was half a century ago — could be fractured for ever.

Back in Wilson’s day, both Labour and Tories had well over a million members. Class loyalty and political allegiance were far stronger than they are now.

But today, Brexit is such a toxic issue that divisions are very deep.

For their part, Leavers believe that Mrs May has betrayed voters and has reneged on her so-called ‘red line’ promises in trying to push through a fudged, muchdiluted Brussels deal.

Indeed, they know that the PM can only succeed if she is supported by Labour and Lib Dem MPs who regret the referendum result and want to keep Britain tied to the EU as closely as possible.

Such febrile conditions could trigger the emergence of a new, pro-Europe political party.

If this happens, I expect that Boris Johnson would try to take advantage of the chaos and mount a leadership challenge against Mrs May. As the figurehead for Leave, he would claim that he has the moral authority to lead the country out of the Customs Union, out of the Single Market and out of the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

Buoyed by yesterday’s personal endorsement by Trump, I expect Johnson to launch a leadership bid by this autumn at the latest.

If that happens, we will see a battle for the soul of the Conservative Party on a scale which will make the internecine war in the Nineties over the Maastricht Treaty, which strengthened the powers of a European superstate, seem a very small skirmish in comparison.

HOWEVER, if Johnson becomes Tory leader, and hence prime minister, I doubt that even a man with his unique talents will be able to keep the Conservative Party together.

Certainly, if he became leader, there would be countless defections by Tory MPs and members to a new pro-European political party.

I’m well aware that not all crystal ball-gazing proves accurate. But events are moving blisteringly fast. And I’m convinced that the shape and structure of British politics is changing dramatically.

We’ve already seen the rise of nationalist parties across Europe, expressing a mood of despair among voters who feel neglected by the political elites which have governed since the end of World War II.

France is now ruled by a party that didn’t exist three years ago. Italy’s government is formed by hardline parties that have never been in power before.

The same political earthquake threatens to strike Britain — with profound and possibly devastating consequences.