EU immigration ‘could fall by 80% after Brexit’
Starmer’s warning raises chances of No Deal – as his party splits over second poll
IMMIGRATION is set to fall dramatically following Brexit after the Cabinet agreed to tough curbs on the number of EU nationals allowed into Britain.
Ministers yesterday backed a system which would end free movement and subject EU migrants to the same rules as those from outside the bloc.
Experts predict the move could lead to an 80 per cent fall in migrants coming to Britain from European countries.
The agreement is a major victory for Theresa May and Home Secretary Sajid Javid, who were pushing for tighter controls.
Mr Javid told the Cabinet that numbers coming to the UK should be reduced to ‘sustainable levels’. He also argued it was upholding the result of the referendum.
The only dissenting voices were Chancellor Philip Hammond and Business Secretary Greg Clark.
One source said Mr Hammond was being ‘typically tin-eared’ about migration. He is understood to accept that free movement is ending, but wants the move to the new regime to be as smooth as possible.
Mr Clark drew a link between migration levels and a likely deal on services.
The new system is based on a plan pubisland lished by the independent Migration Advisory Committee last week. In a further boost for the PM, a predicted row over her Chequers plan failed to materialise.
In a presentation, MAC chairman Professor Alan Manning told ministers there should be more highly-skilled migrants and fewer low-skilled.
In a swipe at Mr Hammond, Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey said it was ridiculous to suggest Britain would both be plunged into recession and experience a big influx of migrants.
If a deal is agreed with the EU, the new system will come into force after the transition period, which is likely to finish at the end of 2020. Net migration from the Brussels bloc currently stands at around 101,000 a year.
After Mrs May’s row with EU leaders in Salzburg last week, reports suggested ministers were planning a rebellion designed to force her to adopt a Canada-style free trade deal.
There was even a suggestion one minister was planning a walk-out. But the issue was barely mentioned.
Mrs May told the meeting ‘Now is the time to hold our nerve’ and said the negotiations were always going to reach a critical point. Defending the Chequers plan, under which the UK would continue to follow single market rules on goods and foods, she said it was the only one which would prevent a hard border on the of Ireland. No other ministers spoke on the issue before it broke up, it is understood. Yesterday, former Brexit secretary David Davis and European Research Group chairman Jacob Rees-Mogg backed a report calling for a Canada-style deal. The 145-page document from the Institute for Economic Affairs think-tank said Chequers would make an independent trade policy – making deals with the US, China and other countries – ‘ all but impossible’. The MAC report suggested free movement should end because there is ‘no guarantee that migration is in the interests of UK residents’. It said higher-skilled workers were better than low- skilled ones because they had higher earnings and were more productive and innovative.
It also advised ministers to maintain a £30,000 minimum salary limit for foreign citizens securing a work permit.
‘Now is the time to hold our nerve’
LABOUR will vote against any Brexit deal Theresa May brings back from Brussels, Sir Keir Starmer warned last night.
The shadow Brexit secretary said Labour’s analysis of the Chequers deal showed it would fail all six of the party’s ‘Brexit tests’. And he said Labour would never back a so-called ‘blind Brexit’, in which the final terms of Britain’s future relationship with the EU are fudged until after it has left.
With Mrs May ruling out alternative plans, Labour now looks set to oppose any deal this autumn – even though that could leave the UK facing a no-deal Brexit, which the party says it opposes.
Sir Keir’s intervention will raise fresh doubts about whether Mrs May will be able to get her final deal through the Commons.
It came as senior Labour figures engaged in an extraordinary public squabble over whether the party should then call for a second referendum – and what should be on the ballot paper.
Shadow chancellor John McDonnell said Labour would push for a general election if the Brexit talks collapsed.
Mr McDonnell said the party would only consider a second referendum if it became impossible to force an election. In those circumstances, he said, staying in the EU should not be on the ballot paper. But shadow international trade secretary Barry Gardiner said the idea that Mrs May might call another election was ‘Looney Tunes territory’. Labour’s official position is to push for an election if Brexit talks fail. But, speaking at a fringe meeting at Labour’s conference in Liverpool, Mr Gardiner said it was time to ‘inject some realism into the debate’. Mr Gardiner said Commons officials had warned him there was little MPs could do to force the PM’s hand in the event of the Chequers deal being rejected. And Sir Keir slapped down Mr McDonnell, saying Labour was keeping open the option of a second referendum in which staying in the EU is an option. The row came ahead of a major debate today at which Labour activists will urge Jeremy Corbyn to embrace the idea of a so- called ‘people’s vote’ on the final deal.
Mr Corbyn has been reluctant to support a second referendum, but said on Sunday he would abide by the decision taken by activists at the party conference today.
‘Let’s see what comes out of conference and then obviously I’m bound by the democracy of our party,’ he said.
His shadow chancellor warned that staging a second vote on Brexit could ‘open up all sorts of xenophobic feelings and a rise of the Right’.
Mr McDonnell added: ‘I don’t want to revive Ukip in any way or even the far-Right.’ He indicated repeatedly that even if a second referendum were to be held, staying in the EU should not be on the ballot paper.
‘We argued for remain in the past but we lost that vote so we have to respect that,’ he said.
‘All the polling that we have seen is that the country is still pretty split down the middle.’
He added: ‘We’re respecting the referendum. We want a general election. If we can’t get that, we will have a people’s vote. The people’s vote will be on the deal itself, and whether we can negotiate a better deal.’
His intervention prompted an angry backlash from pro-Remain Labour MPs.
Former minister David Lammy said: ‘Labour members support a “People’s Vote” by almost nine to one. Ninety per cent of Labour members want to stay in the EU. The leadership of the Labour Party must continue to listen to them. They did not do this to be offered a farcical referendum on no deal or a bad deal.
‘It absolutely must include the right to stay in the EU.’
Sir Keir later insisted that Labour was open to a vote on whether Britain should stay in the EU.
Asked about marathon party talks on the issue, he said: ‘ We weren’t ruling out options and no one was ruling out Remain.’
Labour has set six ‘tests’ for any Brexit deal, including one which states it must deliver the ‘ exact same benefits’ as being in the EU.
Sir Keir will today claim the Chequers deal would fail all six. Ministers have been braced for Labour to formally reject Chequers.
But some Tory moderates had hoped that, faced with the prospect of no deal, some Labour MPs would vote with the Government.
Confirmation that the party will vote against the deal in the Commons leaves Tory whips facing an uphill battle to persuade Eurosceptic MPs to back it.
Last night Sir Keir said: ‘ If Theresa May brings back a deal that fails our tests – and that looks increasingly likely – Labour will vote against it. No ifs, no buts.
‘And if the Prime Minister thinks we’ll wave through a vague deal asking us to jump blindfolded into the unknown she can think again. We will vote down a blind Brexit.’
‘Pretty split down the middle’