CAN MAY NOW SEE OFF THE PLOTTERS?
TheReSA May’s tory Brexit critics claim they will soon have the 48 letters from Conservative MPs needed to force a vote of confidence in her. they believe that she would lose, be replaced by Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees-Mogg and all of Britain’s Brexit problems would be solved.
others say they are living in a fantasy world, it would solve nothing and risk putting Jeremy Corbyn into power.
under Conservative Party rules, if 15 per cent of its current 315 MPs – 48 – write to graham Brady, chairman of the party’s backbench 1922 Committee, calling for a vote of no confidence in the leader, a contest must take place.
he will not say how many letters he has received, prompting some of Mrs May’s critics to claim he is ‘sitting on them’ out of loyalty. In theory, she needs to win a simple majority, 158, to survive. But it is not that simple. When her predecessor John Major was challenged by John Redwood in 1995, he won by 218 to 89. But most agreed if Redwood had scored 100, Major would have been finished.
Despite Iain Duncan Smith’s fighting talk that her ‘days are numbered,’ it will not be easy for IDS and his european Research group Brexiteer tories to get her out. It is made up of around 80 Conservative MPs.
If Mrs May lost, or failed to win by enough to cling on, a leadership battle would ensue.
Johnson, Rees-Mogg, David Davis and Penny Mordaunt would be likely to throw their hats in the ring on ‘hard Brexit’ platforms with Cabinet big-hitters Sajid Javid and Jeremy hunt offering stability and ‘Remainers’ Amber Rudd, Justine greening and possibly Boris’s brother Jo, standing with no real hope of winning, but determined to fly the pro-eu flag. the MPs would whittle the candidates down to two – with a final vote by all tory members.
Davis could capitalise on tory MPs’ mistrust of Johnson. one or the other could face Javid or hunt in the party membership play off.
there is one issue that unites Conservative MPs at present: fear of another general election. however, some of Boris Johnson’s supporters say that if he became Prime Minister, he could call a snap election on a ‘no deal’ Brexit manifesto, and if he won, make a Churchillian stand against Brussels with the nation – and a Parliamentary majority solidly behind him.
there is one problem with this: when Mrs May called a snap election last year she very nearly handed the No10 key to Corbyn.
And Conservative MPs and voters fear that more than any – or no – Brexit deal. the tory leadership tangle was summed up by Paul goodman, editor of the influential Conservativehome website.
he said: ‘having a leadership contest could present more problems than it solves for the Party.’ however, he offered little comfort to Mrs May: ‘It is easy to say tories calling for her to go are like the boy who cried wolf. In the end, the wolf came.’