Brexit brawl hurts Britain
THIs is going to be a big week for the economy, but it’s likely to be drowned out by the Brexit shenanigans.
The latest growth figures today and the employment statistics tomorrow will confirm that Project Fear – the apocalyptic scenario threatened by Remainiacs if the electorate had the temerity to vote to leave the EU – has not materialised.
Growth has been lower than it might have been, but it is nonetheless chugging along and the economy is expected to expand by about 1.5pc-1.6pc next year.
The jobs market has been very strong and the unemployment rate will probably come in around its four-decade low of just over 4pc. There have also been recent welcome signs that wages – stagnant since the financial crisis – have started to increase ahead of inflation, which means households are finally getting a bit better off in real terms.
The FTsE 100 has hit a two-year low and is on track for its worst year since the financial crisis, which is bad news for those of us with share-based savings and pensions. Much of that volatility, though, is due to fears over President Donald Trump’s trade war with China, rather than Brexit.
In short, there is no economic crisis. Far from it. But as the scenes in Westminster become more strident and alarming, politicians need to get a grip on themselves.
Their behaviour is not consequence-free. There is a danger that the political crisis proves contagious and infects the economy, quite needlessly.
Economic forecasts are a devalued currency, and cut no ice with believers on either side, who embrace or discredit predictions to suit their existing opinions, rather than on merit. What is hard to dispute, however is the damage the political shambles around Brexit is doing to Brand Britain in the eyes of the world. OVERsEAs
investors have been attracted by our language, a legal system that protects property rights, a robust democracy and a stable society.
But reflect a moment on what the UK would have looked like recently to one of those overseas investors. They would see a Parliament riven by the ‘ideologues, careerists and resigners’, to filch a memorable phrase from Legal & General boss Nigel Wilson.
They would be looking at a country that is deeply divided, with each side blaming the other for the morass, everyone accusing someone else and no one accepting responsibility. And they would witness MPs intent on shooting down the Prime Minister and the deal she has worked doggedly to produce, despite the lack of any credible alternative either to her or it.
To investors and consumers in many parts of the world, this chaos and confusion is deeply discordant with the Britain they thought they knew, that has been so successful at attracting inward investment and selling high-value products overseas.
A listing on the London stock Exchange, for instance, is seen as a mark of respectability worldwide. British goods have an aura of high quality and high status in far-flung markets. All of that is enmeshed with Britain’s reputation for pragmatism, fairness and civility, which is in danger of going up in smoke on the Brexit bonfire.
It isn’t about Brexit in itself, but the behaviour on display.
Politicians need to listen to business leaders, entrepreneurs and ordinary people, and come to their collective senses.