IT’S THE FINAL COUNTDOWN ... BUT WHAT COMES NEXT?
HOW TODAY’S DRAMA UNFOLDS
12.30PM: Assuming there are no delays, Attorney General Geoffrey Cox QC will stand up to open the final day of debate on Theresa May’s Brexit deal.
BEFOREHAND Speaker John Bercow will select the amendments to the motion proposed by different groups of MPs. There are likely to be at least half a dozen.
DURING the day MPs who have not spoken during the previous days of debate will stand to make their speeches. 6.45PM: Mrs May will sum up the debate and make a final appeal to MPs to back the deal.
PM: Voting begins. First, MPs will vote on the amendments to the deal. If any pass, the final vote is on the deal with those amendments attached.
IF ENOUGH Remainer Tory MPs back the Hilary Benn amendment (see below), the deal has in effect been voted down in advance. 9PM: Vote expected on the deal. After the vote Mrs May will make a statement setting out her response and the next steps the Government will take.
... AND THOSE OTHER CRUCIAL VOTES HILARY’S DEAL-KILLER
THe most significant amendment by far, proposed by Labour’s arch-remainer Hilary benn, chairman of the brexit select committee. It rejects Mrs May’s deal and ‘ no deal’, and urges the Government to bring forward a motion on next steps ‘without delay’. It is backed by Tory supporters of a second referendum, including dr sarah Wollaston and dominic Grieve, and is all but guaranteed to be called by the speaker. If passed it would kill off Mrs May’s deal – but the Labour frontbench could refuse to support it.
TIME LIMIT FOR THE BACKSTOP
TabLed by a loyal Tory backbencher, Northern Ireland select committee chairman andrew Murrison, this would impose a ‘sunset clause’ requiring the Northern Ireland backstop to expire on december 31, 2021. The eU has rejected such a time limit but both Tory archbrexiteers and the Northern Irish dUP demand one as a condition of support for the deal. Last night there were rumours ministers were quietly urging MPs to support it. any explicit endorsement by Mrs May would enrage brussels but, if passed, it would likely save the PM from a painful defeat.
PARLIAMENT VETO ON THE BACKSTOP
ProPosed by sir Hugo swire, this would give Parliament an effective veto at the end of the 20- month transition period over whether to enter the Northern Ireland backstop, or extend the transition. Government insiders say the veto would not be binding but it could force the two sides to come to an alternative arrangement. Ministers have said they accept the spirit of the amendment. If selected by the speaker, it could help build support among Tory MPs but is unlikely to be a game-changer.
CORBYN’S CUSTOMS UNION GAMBIT
THe Labour amendment, put forward by Jeremy Corbyn, says the deal should be rejected because it fails to provide for a permanent customs union and a ‘strong single market’ deal. It also rejects leaving with no deal. Likely to be selected but unlikely to get enough cross-party support to pass.
STANDING UP FOR THE WORKERS
FroM John Mann – one of few Labour MPs set to vote for the deal – this amendment provides assurances on workers rights, environmental standards and health and safety. Ministers have said they are sympathetic towards its aims, but it is unlikely to be called by the speaker.