Deadly threats and the first skirmishes in the Tory civil war
GLEEFUL Tories have been celebrating this week’s defection by nine Labour MPs and enjoying the turncoats’ vitriolic public attacks on leader Jeremy Corbyn.
however, such exultation is both premature and misguided.
True, in the short term, Labour’s problems mean that the Tories have edged a bit further ahead in the opinion polls.
But the fact is that the Conservatives, too, are on the verge of a split, which could make Mr Corbyn’s troubles look minor by comparison.
Already, three Tory MPs have defected in protest at Theresa May’s Brexit policy. And today she faces what many will interpret as an unprecedented act of insubordination and disloyalty from three senior Cabinet ministers.
In a cogently argued article for the Mail, Amber Rudd, David Gauke and Greg Clark say that a No Deal Brexit would see the United Kingdom ‘poorer, less secure and potentially splitting up’.
And they point the finger at the European Research Group, their ultraBrexiteer Tory colleagues, saying they must shoulder the blame if Brexit is delayed. Rudd, Gauke and Clark are quite right.
Unless the Commons agrees over the next few days to back the PM’s deal, Britain faces a choice between a calamitous No Deal Brexit or extending the Article 50 process which determines how the UK leaves the EU.
FOR her part, Mrs May has repeatedly insisted that Brexit will not be delayed past March 29, yet she still refuses to rule out the possibility of us crashing out with No Deal.
A deadly threat lurks behind her three Cabinet ministers’ demands.
Privately, they say they are ready to walk out of the Government in the event of a No Deal Brexit.
They are not kidding. I have no doubt they’ll do so — and a large number of junior ministers would follow them.
All this means that Theresa May faces an invidious choice. She can either bow to the hardRight European Research Group led by Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson.
Or she can give in to the demands of the phalanx of ministers on the other side of the Tory Party, led by Amber Rudd. She cannot do both. So far, the Prime Minister’s strategy has been to bind the two groups together. That’s looking increasingly impossible to achieve.
The most sensible course of action — one that is in the country’s best interest — is to take Ms Rudd’s advice.
Yes, the European Research Group will be enraged. But it is a risk worth taking. Either way, though, there would be a schism within the Conservative Party.
Of course, as a tribal Tory, this is something Mrs May is utterly determined to avoid. But her options are narrowing. Bear in mind that if she loses the support of hardline Brexiteers, the arithmetic of MPs’ voting intentions means that Mrs May would inevitably be forced into a course of action she would hate: negotiations over Brexit with Jeremy Corbyn.
If that happens, without doubt, smelling blood, Labour would demand a high price — such as Britain’s continuing membership of the Customs Union.
In such circumstances, Mrs May would be fatally weakened and the prospect of Mr Corbyn becoming Prime Minister would be more likely by the day.
We will all learn a great deal about which direction the country is going from events in Parliament next week.
The Prime Minister has promised to return to the Commons, regardless of whether or not she has secured legally binding changes to the Northern Irish backstop which have been demanded by her own MPs.
If enough progress has been made, Mrs May would invite the much- delayed ‘ meaningful vote’ on her Brexit deal.
If she wins — which is still possible — Britain should then be set to leave the EU in a relatively orderly manner on March 29.
Mrs May would be hailed as a heroine both for keeping the Tory Party together while securing Brexit and honouring the wishes of the people, as expressed in the referendum in 2016.
All this said, such an outcome looks unlikely.
THERE’S no substantial sign that Brussels has given the Prime Minister the concessions she desperately needs.
If she loses the ‘meaningful vote’, she would still have to make a statement to Parliament about her negotiations. her vulnerability if that happens would offer MPs another opportunity to seize control of the Brexit process.
For Tory Sir Oliver Letwin and Labour’s Yvette Cooper are busy constructing a cross-party alliance to block a No Deal Brexit.
If their Commons amendment is passed, control of events would be taken out of the Prime Minister’s hands, and she would become the victim rather than the shaper of events.
So far, the Tory ultra-Brexiteers have made most of the noise as they try to hold Mrs May ransom and run down the clock to a No Deal Brexit. But with their dramatic ultimatum with their Mail article, the soft-Brexiteers have struck back.
The first skirmishes in the Tory civil war that many of us have been predicting for several months have suddenly begun.