The three key pillars that could save May
THE EXIT MECHANISM
WHAT IT SAYS: A legally binding text, added to the withdrawal agreement, which sets out the temporary nature of the Northern Ireland backstop. Known as a ‘joint interpretative instrument’ it states that the EU ‘cannot act with the intention of applying the backstop indefinitely’. If it did so the UK could challenge through arbitration and – ultimately – get out.
WHAT IT MEANS: Legal advice on the deal from Attorney General Geoffrey Cox warned that the UK could in theory become trapped indefinitely in the controversial backstop. This attempts to reassure those MPs, especially in the Eurosceptic European Research Group, by giving showing a clear – and legally binding – escape route. It also gives more weight to moves to replace the backstop with technological solutions.
THE UNILATERAL DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE
WHAT IT SAYS: A UK-only document which sets out in explicit terms the temporary nature of the backstop. Makes clear that the UK Government’s understanding is that there is nothing to stop us unilaterally leaving the backstop if it appears to be becoming permanent.
WHAT IT MEANS: This document makes clear the UK’s view that we can’t be trapped in the backstop. Although not legally binding over the EU, it would set out in unambiguous terms that a future government can decide to leave at any point if there was no prospect of escaping via a trade deal.
THE ASSURANCES LETTER
WHAT IT SAYS: On January 14, Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker wrote to Theresa May in an attempt to address UK concerns about the backstop and give reassurances it would only be temporary. It was dismissed at the time because it was not legally binding.
WHAT IT MEANS: The letter contains a series of assurances about the temporary nature of the backstop, that the EU would use its ‘best endeavours’ to do a deal, and that it would only be in place as long as ‘strictly necessary’. The EU is also under a legal obligation to try to find technological alternatives to the backstop by the end of 2020, a critical element in the negotiations for hard-line Eurosceptics.