Q&A

What was last night all about? Following a rebellion by Remainer ministers two weeks ago, Mrs May promised to offer two votes this week: one on whether to pursue No Deal and one on whether to delay Article 50 (leaving the EU), if her deal did not pass.

On Tuesday the PM’s revised deal was defeated by 149 votes, after Eurosceptic MPs and Labour refused to back the Government. As a result, MPs last night voted on a No Deal. Why all the chaos?

Somewhat unexpectedly and by a majority of just four votes, 312 MPs backed an amendment ruling out a No Deal Brexit at any stage. The Government then panicked and imposed a threeline whip on a subsequent vote on No Deal in an attempt to overturn the result. Ordinarily this would mean any ministers who did not follow the party line would be sacked.

But instead of instilling discipline, it had the opposite effect and spurred rebellion.

Fifteen ministers and aides abstained and two voted against the Government and have now resigned.

When the votes were tallied, Mrs May had lost by an even bigger margin: 321 to 278, a majority of 43.

Is No Deal dead? Not exactly, but it is highly unlikely. Last night’s vote is not, strictly speaking, legally binding, and if the law is not changed before March 29 to alter the exit date, a No Deal Brexit is supposed to happen. But Mrs May says she will respect Parliament’s clear intention. Today MPs are set to tell the PM to ask for an extension to Article 50 and delay Brexit. So what can Mrs May do now?

She’s set a new D-Day for Brexit – next Wednesday. Her new motion says that if her deal has been passed by then, the Government will request a short ‘technical’ extension to Article 50, until the end of June, to pass the necessary legislation.

This would avoid the nightmare of the UK having to stage European Parliament elections.

But if MPs fail to pass the deal by March 20, she warned that the EU is likely to demand a long extension to Article 50 of anything up to two years at next week’s European Council meeting.

What happens today?

The chaos continues. As well as the vote on extending Article 50, MPs will table, and vote on, a series of amendments on what should happen next.

Many are demanding a set of ‘indicative votes’ on alternatives to Mrs May’s deal – such as joining a permanent customs union, or a socalled ‘Norway-style’ deal which would keep the UK inside the single market. An alliance of MPs led by Tory MP Oliver Letwin and Yvette Cooper will push a controversial proposal to seize control of Parliament and try and force through formal legislation to stop No Deal.

Could Mrs May’s deal pass next week?

Incredibly, it’s still possible.

Many Brexiteers were keen to vote with the Government this week but were spooked by Geoffrey Cox’s legal advice, and last night some were already indicating their willingness to now back the deal.

The Attorney General may issue some updated advice to help bring the DUP back on board.

But there is an irreducible core of up to 20 Eurosceptics who would rather risk a lengthy delay than accept a deal they see as completely flawed and not really representing Brexit at all. There are also some Tory Remainers who will not vote for the deal.

Assuming she wins over most of her own side and the DUP, Mrs May will still need several dozen Labour MPs to back her.

Currently she has the support of just three.