I fear she is finished

Ever since she became Prime Minister, I have been impressed by Theresa May’s fixity of purpose as she has struggled to push her version of Brexit through the Commons. I’ve admired, too, her stoicism and courage — but I have to concede that she has now lost her grip.

The accounts of her ordeal in Brussels on Thursday made for excruciating reading. She was robotic and unconvincing.

She had no answer to the question of what she thought would happen if MPs voted down her withdrawal deal for a third time. Why did she want to extend Article 50 until June 29? No explanation.

And with that, Mrs May was exiled to her hotel for seven hours while the leaders of the other 27 eU countries discussed Britain’s fate. Inevitably, they rejected her proposed date and gave us until May 22 to stay in the eU — but only on condition that MPs approve her withdrawal deal. Otherwise, April 12 is the deadline.

A humbled Mrs May then returned to more humiliation at home.

In London, her authority was holed as she was abandoned by some of her own team.

Chief Whip Julian Smith’s friends made it known that he had described as ‘appalling’ her Tv broadcast on Wednesday night attacking MPs and blaming them for the Brexit deadlock.

Just as damagingly, David Lidington — her de facto deputy — left the impression that he, too, had lost faith in the PM. And Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbench MPs, said that an increasing number want her to resign.

To make matters worse, some MPs who previously voted for the Prime Minister’s deal reportedly suggested they are likely to withdraw their support.

The seemingly killer blow came yesterday tea-time when the Democratic Unionist party’s (DUP) deputy leader Nigel Dodds announced his implacable opposition to the Prime Minister.

He said: ‘We will not accept any deal which poses a long-term risk to the constitutional and economic integrity of the UK.’

TrAGICALLy,this scenario reminds me of the last days of Margaret Thatcher in No 10. The ruling party’s MPs in open revolt. A chief whip stoking disaffection.

Theresa May’s problem has been obvious from the start. She’s tried to bring her party’s ultraBrexiteers and remainers to a compromise. Not only has she failed, they now seem to be further apart than ever. So is she finished? Probably. But don’t bank on it yet. There is still a sliver of a chance that she can get her deal through next week.

This, though, would not be down to her statesmanship but to the fact that the alternative is a long period of anarchy at Westminster and of uncertainty across the whole country.

Let me set out what I see as the likely consequences if Mrs May’s deal fails again, or it doesn’t even get voted on.

A restless Parliament would probably seize control of Government business if a crossparty Commons motion (sponsored by Labour’s Hilary Benn and the Tories’ Sir Oliver Letwin) is successful. (Bear in mind that only two weeks ago a similar bid to wrest the Brexit timetable out of Mrs May’s hands failed by only two votes.)

If this happens, Mrs May is doomed. So what next?

Considering that the Commons is bitterly divided — between hard-Brexiteers, remainers, softBrexiteers, Labour MPs whose eyes are set only on having a General election, the DUP, the Scottish Nationalists and assorted others — there is no way that Parliament would act collectively.

One thing is for sure, though: the majority of MPs want either a much softer Brexit than Mrs May is offering, or no Brexit at all.

That said, they would be emboldened to instruct a lame duck Mrs May to negotiate a new eU exit arrangement — probably something like the arrangement Norway has. Although not an eU member, Norway is in the Single Market but not part of the Customs Union.

How utterly galling it would be for Mrs May to be told to adopt a policy she’s long repudiated.

Conversely, if Mrs May accepts being treated as MPs’ slave, hard- Brexit Tory MPs and, I’m convinced, the majority of her Cabinet who had not already resigned would react with outrage. They would insist that she made clear that Britain would leave the eU with no deal on April 12. But Mrs May would not be able to do that if the Commons had taken the whip hand.

If the next few weeks pan out as I describe, I cannot see how Mrs May could survive beyond that point. In her heart, I’m sure she knows this, too, and that she would have to quit No 10.

ATOry leadership election would then be held, taking several weeks to conclude. Brexiteers Boris Johnson and Dominic raab would be favourites to win.

I can disclose that when the possibility of a leadership contest was discussed in Cabinet last week, May loyalist Liam Fox wisely remarked that the winner would be a ‘king without a kingdom’.

With the Tories ripping themselves to shreds, there would, of course, be a need for an acting prime minister to helm the tottering government. The most obvious candidate, as I have argued in this column, would be David Lidington.

I have known this so- called ‘Invisible Man’ for more than a quarter of a century. Politically, he favours a softer Brexit than the one offered by Theresa May.

A politician who has been trusted by everyone he’s worked with, and liked even by opponents, he has no ambition to be Tory leader — but I can see him being a stop-gap PM for a few months.

He would find himself in charge of a makeshift coalition government, which, considering the chaos the country would be in, would have to include senior Labour politicians.

Ironically, although still the governing party, the bulk of the Tory MPs would feel as if they were the opposition.

In any case, it’s hard to imagine such an arrangement lasting long. A snap General election would become inevitable.

I fear that voters, bemused by what was happening in Westminster, would abstain in their hundreds of thousands.

Who knows what would happen? But it is conceivable that a 69year- old Jeremy Corbyn would become prime minister.

yes, the picture I have painted is bleak. But it is very plausible considering the wretched situation that Britain finds itself in this weekend.

Mrs May is almost finished. But the alternative is mayhem.

Is that what the hard-Brexiteers really want?