EXTRACTS FROM LETTER LEAKED TO THE MAIL

DIRECT RULE FOR ULSTER

The current powers granted to the Northern Irish Secretary would not be adequate for the pace, breadth or controversy of the decisions needed to be taken through a No Deal exit. Therefore we would have to introduce Direct Rule.

FEARS FOR DEFENCE

Our National Security would be disrupted. The stability of Union would be dislocated.

LAW AND ORDER TROUBLE

The UK would forfeit access to criminal justice levers. None of our mitigation measures would give the UK the same security capabilities as our current ones... The UK would be less safe as a result.

FOOD PRICES UP 10%

We believe there would be significant disruption in the short term. Food prices would increase by up to 10 per cent with steeper rises in fresh produce prices.

CURRENCY CONCERNS

Unlike in 2008 our recession would be a local one, not an international one. This would make the currency depreciation more harmful.

BORROWING ROAD BLOCK

[Businesses and households] without access to frictionless EU trade would struggle to get credit.

MASS BAILOUTS

There would be enormous pressure on the Government to bail out companies on the brink.