Top mandarin’s bombshell No Deal warning to Cabinet

‘National security would be disrupted’

BRITAIN’S highest-ranking civil servant has issued a doomsday analysis of how the country would be affected by a No Deal Brexit.

In a bombshell letter to ministers, extracts of which have been leaked to the Daily Mail, Cabinet Secretary Sir Mark Sedwill says leaving the EU without a deal would hamper the police and security services and lead to the return of direct rule in Northern Ireland.

Sir Mark’s 14-page letter, sent ahead of a fivehour Cabinet showdown today, warns:

No Deal would result in a 10 per cent spike in food prices and the collapse of some businesses that trade with the EU;

The Government would come under pressure to bail out companies on the brink;

It would hamper the ability of the police and security services to keep people safe;

It would lead to the reintroduction of direct rule in Northern Ireland for the first time since 2007;

A recession will hit the UK and the pound’s depreciation will be ‘more harmful’ than in 2008;

Our legal authorities and judicial system would be put under ‘enormous pressure’.

Theresa May has summoned her Cabinet for a marathon five-hour meeting in No 10 today to thrash out whether to switch to a soft Brexit, leave without a deal next week or trigger a general election or second referendum.

The session will begin with a three-hour meeting of the ‘political Cabinet’, during which ministers will discuss the political risks and consequences for the Tory Party.

But Sir Mark’s letter warns that No Deal would have wider consequences for the UK’s economy, security and constitution.

It was sent to every member of the Cabinet last week. It is understood ministers asked for Sir Mark’s assessment to ensure they were complying with their duty to govern in the national interest.

The letter will now be kept in the Government’s files and could be released in the event of a public inquiry into the handling of Brexit.

Sir Mark, who also serves as the Government’s national security adviser, warns that No Deal would affect our security services.

‘Our national security would be disrupted,’ he says. ‘The UK would forfeit access to criminal justice levers. None of our mitigation measures would give the UK the same security capabilities as our current ones.

‘A No Deal exit would enormously increase pressure on our law and security authorities and on our judicial system. The UK would be less safe as a result of this.’

Sir Mark warns No Deal could lead to the break-up of the UK, saying: ‘The stability of the union would be dislocated.’

He says Northern Ireland would face ‘more severe’ consequences, particularly as the lack of devolved government would require direct rule from London.

‘The running of Northern Ireland under No Deal is a sensitive issue,’ he says. ‘ The current powers granted to the Northern Irish Secretary would not be adequate for the pace, breadth or controversy of the decisions needed to be taken through a No Deal exit. Therefore we would have to introduce direct rule.’

One source said Sir Mark’s warning on the union had convinced Mrs May she could not risk taking the UK out without a deal.

The letter says the Government does not expect the banking system to crash. But it warns firms heavily involved in trading with the EU could ‘struggle to get credit’.

Sir Mark goes on: ‘There would be enormous pressure on the Government to bail out companies on the brink.’

In a separate letter to Mrs May, 170 Tory MPs, including ten members of the Cabinet, have urged her to take us out of the EU next week even if she can’t get her deal through. Andrea Leadsom, Steve Barclay, Penny Mordaunt, Geoffrey Cox, Gavin Williamson, Brandon Lewis, Sajid Javid, Liz Truss, Chris Grayling and Alun Cairns are understood to be warning her it would be better to leave without a deal than switch to a soft Brexit.

Miss Truss said: ‘I think we are well-prepared for No Deal. I don’t have any fear of No Deal.’

Mr Grayling, Mr Javid and Mr Williamson also warned yesterday against pursuing a soft Brexit option such as a customs union.

But a string of other ministers have indicated they could quit if the Government pursued No Deal, including David Lidington, David Gauke, Greg Clark, Amber Rudd, Claire Perry and David Mundell. While the Cabinet is united behind Mrs May’s deal, ministers are deeply split on what to do if Parliament continues to oppose it.

MPs rejected the deal for a third time last Friday by 58 votes. Ministers will today discuss the idea of bringing back it for a fourth attempt, possibly on Thursday.

But with the DUP making it clear it will never back the deal, hope is fading that it can be passed before Britain is due to leave on April 12.

If the deal is not passed, Mrs May will travel to an emergency Brussels summit on April 10, where she will either have to request a lengthy delay to Brexit or inform the EU she has opted for No Deal.

Downing Street declined to comment on Sir Mark’s letter.