Now Tories must keep their eyes on the prize

USING by-election results to predict what might happen in a general election can leave you looking very foolish.

A memorable example of this was in 1981 when Liberal leader David Steel, after a string of stunning one-off victories for his SDP-Liberal alliance, told the party faithful: ‘Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government.’

In a general election less than two years later they gained just 23 seats – 303 short of the majority he so confidently forecast.

So the result of the Newport West byelection should certainly be viewed with caution. Nevertheless it did cast some tantalising straws into the wind.

Even at this historically low ebb, the Conservatives managed a 2.4 per cent swing away from Labour. Furthermore the feared Ukip backlash failed to materialise, its support rising to a modest 8.6 per cent.

True, Labour held on. But this traditional working-class seat has gone from being a stronghold to a marginal.

In these times of doubt and pain, this is a crumb of comfort for the Tories. It suggests voters are still deeply concerned about the huge damage a Labour government would inflict on the country.

And the signs are that if the Conservative Party can get past the Brexit roadblock, a comfortable general election victory is still there for the taking.

But the first imperative is to force Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement over the line.

Grassroots members and readers of this newspaper are understandably bemused and disappointed by Mrs May’s decision to hold talks with Jeremy Corbyn and his hard-Left acolytes.

But what else was she supposed to do after so many in her own party refused to support her? When conventional politics break down, Realpolitik must take over.

Yes, this may mean a softer Brexit than that envisaged in her own deal. For that, intransigent hard-Brexiteers have only themselves to blame.

But with a fair wind, we could yet leave the EU by May 22, delivering on the letter of the referendum result – leaving the detail to be fought over later.

That should be a moment of Tory renewal. Clearly exhausted by her brave efforts to negotiate an honourable departure, the Prime Minister will soon leave the stage.

A new leader and Cabinet will then emerge from the considerable array of talent available. With vision and careful bridgebuilding, the party can be reunified.

The Brexit saga will move into its next phase but should not be so all-consuming. We will be out, making the prospect of a second referendum (a recipe for even more division and acrimony) redundant.

Then the Tories can get back to the job of governing this great country. They have a truly excellent story to tell.

Our economy, employment levels and tax receipts are strong and the crippling deficit has been almost wiped out. Chancellor Philip Hammond (whose shrewd stewardship of the national coffers through this period of crisis is often overlooked) has a huge war chest to galvanise our public services, liberalise taxes and boost infrastructure.

The Tory Party can at last deliver a positive message to the long-suffering electorate.

If communing briefly (very briefly!) with the enemy is what it takes to get there, isn’t that a price worth paying?