THE ANALYSER

NO RACE is studied more than the Grand National and punters will pore over the form ahead of this afternoon’s race. Our wizard of the statistics has come up with the key trends to help sort through the 40 entries.

BEGINNER’S LUCK

Experience of the Grand National fences is not essential with 10 of the last 11 winners having their first run in the race. Mon Mome (2009) is the last winner who had run in the race before.

AGE CONCERN

In recent Nationals, it has been a younger horse’s race. Three of the last four winners were aged eight, the other one being nine years old. Eleven of the last 22 winners were also eight or nine years old.

WEIGHT ON YOUR MIND

In the last 34 years, only four winners have carried 11st or more. Those four were in the last 14 years, suggesting the modern-day National lends itself to classier top weights. But your each-way bet is more likely to be in the frame if it carries less than 11st. In the last 10 years, only 12 (out of 40) first-four finishers carried 11st or more. In the last five years, that figure drops to four (out of 20).

JUMP TO IT

Not surprisingly, a sound jumping record has been a big plus over Aintree’s daunting fences. Only two of the last 22 winners had fallen or unseated their jockeys more than twice. Last year’s winner Tiger Roll had only unseated his rider once and never fallen and the previous three winners had never fallen or unseated their jockeys.

STAYING POWER

It’s a long race and 11 of the last 14 winners had won over 3 miles one furlong or further. Six of them had won over 3m 4f or further.

THE SHORTLIST

Rock The Kasbah, Jury Duty, Monbeg Notorious, Step Back, Vintage Clouds, Walk In The Mill.