Could 6-month delay lead to Halloween horror?
On Wednesday night, EU leaders and Theresa May signed off a six-month Brexit extension to October 31, but with a break clause if MPs agree on a deal. These are the likely consequences.
THE DEAL
Mrs May asked for a short extension to Article 50 until the end of June, which would have put pressure on MPs. The next deadline is the European elections on May 23, which Tories and many in Labour want to avoid, fearing a Brexiteer backlash. If talks between
Mrs May and Jeremy Corbyn have not produced a deal, a new deadline weeks later might enforce a compromise.
MRS MAY’S FUTURE
The mood on the Tory benches is febrile. After Mrs May agreed to the extension, calls for her to quit got noticeably louder. The next pressure point will be local elections on May 2, which Tories fear will be a bloodbath. But yesterday many MPs backed the PM to stay and try to get a deal through. The length of the delay is also in Mrs May’s favour – there is arguably not enough time for a new leader to establish themselves before going to Brussels to ask for a new extension.
GENERAL ELECTION
Among some senior Tories – including many of the likely leadership contenders – the only answer to the paralysis is a general election. In theory, a new leader would take over in the summer, have a short period to bed in then win a majority. This would make both passing a deal, and using the threat of No Deal, a viable prospect. But any new leader would face having to ask for an extension, or have the Commons force them to do so, within weeks of taking office.
LABOUR
For Jeremy Corbyn, the fundamentals haven’t changed. He can do a deal, or allow Brexit to happen, then face a backlash from his overwhelmingly Remain-backing membership and MPs demanding a second referendum. If he plays for time, he can maximise the Tory divisions and trust any blame for Brexit not going through will fall more on the Conservatives. This is the easy course to take. But if this lifelong Eurosceptic actually wants Brexit to happen, he needs to move – and the earlier the better. In autumn, he could find that Labour delegates to the party conference will enforce a much firmer second referendum policy.