How galling that the man who inspired Brexit could put Corbyn into No 10
Nigel Farage is the single most important British politician of the past 30 years. That may sound an extraordinary statement, given that he has never even won a seat at Westminster, despite seven attempts since 1994. But as the man who made euroscepticism mainstream, appealing to millions of working-class voters who might never have been attracted to a traditional Conservative, the former City trader single-handedly paved the way for Brexit. And long after the likes of David Cameron, ed Miliband, george Osborne and perhaps even Theresa May are forgotten, i suspect historians will still be fascinated by Mr Farage’s extraordinary rise from obscurity. Now, after apparently vacating the national stage after the EU referendum, he is back. And with an almost effortless ease, the founder of the Brexit Party has once again put himself in the thick of the action. According to two surveys this week, his party has surged to first place in polls for the european parliamentary elections, just ahead of labour and more than 10 per cent clear of the Conservatives, who are a very poor third. And if the elections do go ahead on May 23, as seems very likely, then the next day’s headlines will surely belong to Mr Farage, whose denunciations of Parliament and the political class have manifestly struck a chord with millions of leave voters. indeed, there must be a reasonable chance that his Brexit Party will play a decisive role in three successive titanic votes: the european elections, a possible second referendum and then a general election.
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given that Mr Farage’s previous party, Ukip, won almost 4million votes in the 2015 general election, i would not bet against him doing even better in a future campaign.
in many ways, of course, the Brexit Party’s stunning overnight rise is simply a reflection of Parliament’s shambolic inability to deliver on the 2016 referendum. Three years on, with Britain apparently stuck in limbo, the Tories and labour unable to agree a way forward and rumours of a second referendum becoming ever louder, who can blame so many ordinary people for feeling bitterly frustrated?
indeed, whatever your views about Brexit, one thing on which we can surely all agree is that the last three years have shown our MPs in a wretchedly poor light, from the shambles of Mrs May’s attempts to get her deal through to the boasting and strutting of the Conservative ERG, the cynical evasions of Jeremy Corbyn and the shameless posturing of John Bercow.
given the Westminster politicians’ reckless brinkmanship, interminable pomposity and brazen showing-off, it is no wonder that, earlier this month, a record seven out of ten people told a survey that our entire political system needed significant improvement.
even more worryingly, a staggering 54 per cent said they thought Britain needed a ‘strong leader willing to break the rules’ – precisely the formula used to justify authoritarians such as Hungary’s presidential strongman Viktor Orban or italy’s far-Right deputy premier Matteo Salvini, who make no secret of their contempt for liberal democracy.
Although i am no great fan of Mr Farage, i don’t think he is cut from the same cloth. He is a natural rebel, not a natural tyrant, with a reflective side not often shown in public.
Talking to the editor of the left-wing New Statesman, he once remarked that his hero was the 18th- century radical agitator John Wilkes, a champion of Press freedom. And although he clearly loves shocking liberal sensibilities, i find it impossible to picture him as a British Mussolini.
even so, i suspect his influence may be greater now than at any time in his career. Far from going away, the anxieties that he has tapped so successfully remain as potent as ever. Nobody is better placed to exploit the understandable popular frustration at our political class and patriotic resentment of the Brussels elite.
The longer the Brexit impasse continues, of course, the higher his star will rise. indeed, i wonder if there is a part of Mr Farage that would relish the prospect of a second referendum: a titanic, once-and-for-all showdown against the Westminster establishment, in which he would present himself as the champion of the people against the political class. Again, i would not bet against him. For he has an unparalleled ability to reach workingclass voters concerned about europe, identity, immigration and the pace of cultural change, despite the fact that his own background – Dulwich College and the City of london – could hardly be more different.
THE truth is that he has that most precious of political commodities: authenticity. Unlike Boris Johnson, who infamously wrote two columns before the EU referendum, one for Remain and one for leave, before deciding which way to jump, Mr Farage manifestly believes what he says.
And unlike so many politicians, he is not a careerist. in the 1990s and 2000s, in the prime of life, he stood again and again for Ukip in unwinnable seats, suffering one humiliation after another. Only after he had spent years toiling in the wilderness did commentators begin to take him seriously.
The supreme irony, though, is that Mr Farage’s final achievement may be to destroy the organisation that he joined as a schoolboy at Dulwich in the late 1970s: the Conservative Party.
For although Tories insist their abysmal third place in polls for the european elections is a blip, it could easily be a sign of something seismic. if former leave voters conclude the Tories broke their promises and failed to deliver Brexit, then they could defect en masse to the Brexit Party.
Under the first-past-the-post system, that could leave Jeremy Corbyn’s labour with a majority at the next election. in other words, a jaunty, libertarian, anti-european populist could end up putting a joyless, vegetarian, teetotal, anti-capitalist radical into No 10.
As a man with a famously pronounced sense of humour, Mr Farage might well see the funny side of this. Whether the rest of us would be laughing, however, is rather more doubtful.