TORIES SHOULD BEWARE WHAT THEY WISH FOR

With the Brexit deadlock having reduced the public’s faith in politicians, you might have thought that tory MPs dreaded returning to the Commons yesterday after the Easter recess.

Not at all. Many couldn’t wait to launch a new campaign to remove theresa May.

those who blame her for failing on her promise to deliver Brexit used a meeting of the executive of the party’s 1922 Committee to demand rule changes to allow a new vote of confidence in her.

Otherwise, as party rules stand, she cannot be challenged until December.

those MPs who are exasperated with Mrs May believe the tories’ problems can only be solved with a new leader who is a visceral Brexiteer, such as Boris Johnson.

For her part, the Prime Minister is clinging to the hope she can still get a Brexit deal through, either via talks with Labour or having a fourth attempt at getting MPs to back it in the Commons.

But both options seem forlorn. Ministers privately admit Labour has far more to gain by watching the Conservatives implode.

Similarly, some rebel tories MPs in the hard Brexit European Research Group who have sabotaged Mrs May’s deal three times are buoyed by the popularity of Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party.

Opinion polls suggest it is heading for victory in next month’s European Parliament elections. What’s more, there are widespread reports tory members and activists will abandon the party in vast numbers and vote for the Brexit Party. they believe if Mr Farage wins, it would reinforce their calls for a new Brexiteer tory leader. the brutal truth is if the Conservatives are thrashed in the Euro elections, Mrs May would surely have no choice but to step down immediately.

A party leadership election would then be held over the summer. Although Mr Johnson would be hot favourite to win, such a contest would most likely be a bloodbath – a tory Game of thrones.

More than ten possible candidates have been mooted. A ‘stop Boris’ campaign has already been launched by his many Conservative enemies. they are even prepared to back Leave campaigners Michael Gove and Dominic Raab if it means stopping Mr Johnson’s name making the final shortlist of two.

however, if Mr Johnson saw off his doubters and won, he could expect a hero’s welcome from the overwhelmingly Eurosceptic tory faithful at his coronation at the party conference in Manchester in September.

Undoubtedly he is already dreaming of arriving in Brussels for his first meeting as Prime Minister with EU chiefs and demanding a raft of new concessions.

Despite the former Foreign Secretary’s pugnacity, it is hard to envisage EU leaders giving any more ground to him. indeed, they dislike him so much for his years of Brussels-baiting they could be even more awkward.

if so, Mr Johnson could make as many cod Churchillian calls to arms to Parliament as he liked, but i predict he would have no more chance of getting more support from the Commons than Mrs May has achieved.

the fact is that, despite a change of leader, the tories would still not have a parliamentary majority – and Mr Johnson’s antagonistic approach could even turn the voting arithmetic further against the Government.

All the while, the clock would be ticking down to the new October 31 deadline for Britain’s departure from the EU.

Whereas Mrs May has clearly been terrified of a No Deal Brexit, it holds no fear for Mr Johnson. however, if he became Prime Minister, that route might be closed to him. For Parliament’s Remainer majority has already vetoed Mrs May pursuing a No Deal and they will stymie Mr Johnson, too.

in theory, a swaggering Prime Minister Johnson could thwart them by proroguing Parliament. But that would mean a new Withdrawal Bill brought forward with a new parliamentary session and Queen’s speech. in other words, the nuclear option.

Also, it would inevitably mean a general election or a second EU referendum.

Of the two, the latter is less dangerous for the tories because it would avoid the risk of voters punishing them for failing to honour Brexit and electing a Corbyn government.

however, this is not how diehard tory Brexiteers see it. they consider Brexit to be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and more important than the preservation of a Conservative government.

typically, Mr Johnson is still probably confident that both Brexit and the continuation of a Conservative government are possible. his allies, too, have faith in his campaigning skills and his populist appeal.

As ever, though, Mr Johnson is a divisive figure. Ex-minister Steve Norris yesterday became the latest tory to say he would leave the party if Mr Johnson becomes leader.

Meanwhile, Mrs May struggles on. Assailed from all sides, she is under intense pressure to name the day she intends to resign.

But the great risk is that by doing so, she would open the way for Mr Corbyn to be the Queen’s 14th Prime Minister.