THERESA’S DILEMMA... WHATEVER SHE DOES

CUSTOMS UNION

Theresa May is mulling the offer of staying in a customs union with the EU, at least until the next election. This could stop Britain striking its own trade deals, risking a backlash that might cost the votes of more Conservative MPs than she gains from Labour. The offer may be voted down, splitting the Tory party.

SECOND REFERENDUM

Labour backbenchers have put forward a plan that involves pledging to support the Prime Minister’s deal if she agrees to put it to a public vote. However almost all Tory MPs and some in Labour’s ranks oppose this idea. There would also be a dispute over the options on the ballot paper.

GO TO THE POLLS

If Mrs May continues to find no way to solve the parliamentary arithmetic, she could try to force an early election. But many Tories want her to quit before another national poll and there is no guarantee she would gain the support of the two thirds of MPs needed to call one. In any case, another hung parliament is likely.

NO DEAL

Without a majority for any Brexit plan, Mrs May could decide it is time for No Deal. This would delight some Tory MPs but there is a majority in Parliament against leaving the EU without an agreement. Backbenchers led by Yvette Cooper and Sir Oliver Letwin would probably bring back legislation to stop her.

STAND ASIDE

Disaster at the European Parliament elections later this month could persuade Mrs May to make way for another leader. However, a new prime minister would face the same options and parliamentary arithmetic. Brussels also insists it will not change the withdrawal agreement.