Labour’s willingness to break up the Union for political advantage takes my breath away

WIll scotland be an independent country in five years? It would take a very naive person to stake everything against such an outcome.

For months we have been told a no Deal Brexit will increase the appetite for going it alone north of the border, where Remain attracted 62 per cent of the votes in the 2016 referendum.

even a softer, negotiated Brexit would, according to some pundits, make independence more likely, because a majority of scots don’t want to be yanked out of the eU against their will.

But so far all this has been speculation. now there is a nearcertain route to a self- governing scotland, cynically provided by labour’s John McDonnell, the shadow Chancellor, in defiance of his party’s previous policy, and to the great annoyance of some colleagues.

Hours after scottish First Minister and fierce nationalist nicola sturgeon opened the door to a ‘ progressive alliance’ with labour, Mr McDonnell told an audience in edinburgh on Tuesday that a Corbyn government ‘would not block’ a second scottish independence referendum. He repeated himself yesterday.

What this means is that the hardleft clique that runs the labour Party is no longer confident of achieving an overall majority in a general election, which could take place in months. so in return for parliamentary support from the scottish nationalists, a labour administration would grant a second independence referendum.

We already knew Mr McDonnell was a ruthless creature with more than a touch of the night about him. But his willingness to break up the 312-year-old union with scotland in return for a short- lived political advantage really takes one’s breath away.

For there is a high probability in the existing febrile circumstances — with Prime Minister Boris Johnson going down with many scots as happily as a bowl of cold porridge — that the scottish nationalists would finally fulfil their dream.

Indeed, a recent opinion poll suggests 52 per cent of people in scotland would plump for independence. In the 2014 referendum, 55.3 per cent voted against.

VOTE labour — and get an independent scotland. Messrs Corbyn and McDonnell might as well paint this slogan on the side of their battle bus during any forthcoming election.

In reality, the labour hierarchy is abandoning scotland to the SNP. As recently as 2010, labour won 41 seats there. This dramatically fell to one in the 2015 election, before rising to seven in 2017.

Once upon a time, labour depended on its scottish seats to govern in Westminster. Mr McDonnell evidently believes there is no chance of winning them back, so an electoral pact with the SNP is being cooked up as a substitute. scottish independence is the price.

so: this is the terrible situation — terrible for Unionists like myself, that is — in which we find ourselves. labour is preparing to shuffle off scotland (and very possibly northern Ireland, too, since last year Mr McDonnell disclosed his ‘longing’ for a united Ireland).

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson appears hell-bent on no Deal, which would surely have the effect, if there is an economic shock throughout the whole of Britain, of hardening the hearts at least temporarily of scots in favour of independence.

Here it is tempting to hoist the white flag, and accept what may look inevitable. That is what many in england are doing, including, in my experience, Tories who a decade ago were solid Unionists.

If the scots want to go their own way, let them. That is an argument one now hears from lots of people. They say, with some truth, that the momentum towards self-government has been gathering force for half a century.

They also point out, again reasonably enough, that devolution (which, according to one of its architects, labour Cabinet Minister george Robertson, would ‘kill nationalism stone dead’) has given the SNP an extra fillip.

Tory MPs won’t express their increasing lack of enthusiasm for the Union in public, but such views are common. This explains why so many are eager to ram through no Deal even though it could end up shattering the United Kingdom. They think Brexit is a greater prize than holding great Britain together.

A very depressing finding in a recent Yougov poll was that 63 per cent of Tory Party members believe that scotland leaving the UK would be an acceptable price to pay for achieving Brexit.

speaking for myself, I would cheerfully consign Brexit to the dustbin if that guaranteed a permanent union between england and scotland, which has been a huge force for good in the world. But I accept such a deal is not on offer.

Brexit is almost certain to happen, probably a pretty hard one. And so Unionists will have to persuade the scots that the relationship forged in 1707, and all our shared history and common sacrifices since then, have more enduring value than our fleeting 46- year- old membership of the EU.

If the sky does not fall in post-Brexit — and I am sure it won’t — then it should be possible to convince scots that the UK has a bright and prosperous economic future.

They should be reminded that, per head of the population, they receive about 20 per cent more on public services compared with england. Is such an advantageous state of affairs really likely to persist if scotland leaves the Union?

should it opt for independence and re- apply for EU membership, scotland would probably be required to join the euro, and would certainly have a hard border with england. Do scots really want that?

All these and other arguments must be deployed by such people as Ruth Davidson, the very able Tory leader north of the border, and Boris Johnson, who should make saving the Union his priority once Brexit is out of the way.

The two of them will have to find a way of getting on better. Despite his plummy southern vowels, I don’t see why Boris can’t employ his charms successfully in scotland, and demonstrate he is not the Rightwing fiend and buffoon of SNP and labour demonisation.

Above all, he must make clear there is no question of another independence referendum — the last one was described by the then SNP leader, Alex salmond, as a ‘once in a generation opportunity’ — at least until the after-shocks of Brexit have died down.

THE hope is the scots will be able to take a more settled view of the Union after it has become clear that life for Britain outside the EU is not the calamity so many predict.

Of course, if I am wrong, and in five years the UK economy is doing less well than its EU counterparts, the argument for independence will strengthen. But I am optimistic.

To return to my question: is scottish independence inevitable? Almost certainly, if there is a labour-led government. A second referendum would be granted, and take place immediately after the divisiveness of Brexit, and before any benefits of leaving the EU are evident.

But all is not lost if Boris Johnson emerges in one piece from the storm about to engulf him. If he resists endemic Tory pessimism about the Union, and fights passionately for its survival, great Britain may yet continue to exist.