4 ways this explosive week may pan out
As MPs return to Parliament after their long summer break, Political Editor Jason Groves examines four scenarios for what looks set to be an explosive week at Westminster.
PM HEADS OFF A BID BY REMAINER MPS TO BLOCK NO DEAL
REBEL ringleaders believe they have the numbers to push through legislation preventing a No Deal Brexit. But allies of Boris Johnson think it is possible they could be defeated. Downing Street hopes that some potential Tory rebels will accept the need to give Mr Johnson more time to negotiate with the EU, while others could be brought back on side by the threat of being suspended from the party. Ministers are also expected to sanction delaying tactics in the Lords ensuring the legislation fails to reach the statute books in time. Mr Johnson could then use the threat of No Deal to pile pressure on Brussels to offer last-minute concessions.
REMAINER REBELS PASS LAW BLOCKING NO DEAL, PROMPTING PM TO CALL ELECTION
SOME ministers believe Mr Johnson is poised to announce an election if rebels succeed in passing legislation to rule out a No Deal Brexit. Under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, Mr Johnson would need the approval of MPs to call an early election, but senior Tories believe it would be all-but impossible for Labour to vote to keep Mr Johnson in power. The PM would then run a ‘People versus Parliament’ election in the hope of securing a mandate for his Brexit strategy. Some allies of Mr Johnson suggest he could delay the election until after October 31, leaving MPs powerless to stop Brexit.
BORIS IGNORES ANTINO-DEAL LEGISLATION
MICHAEL Gove sparked a backlash from Remainers yesterday by refusing to say that the Government would abide by a law designed to obstruct the aim of leaving the EU by October 31. Tory sources last night insisted the Government would not break the law, but ministers believe rebels will struggle to draft one so tightly that it can compel the Prime Minister to act in the way they intend. In this scenario, Mr Johnson could keep rebels guessing right up until a crunch EU summit in mid-October, when he would exploit a loophole to get his way. For example, he could threaten to disrupt EU business by vetoing its budget if Britain is kept in, forcing EU leaders to refuse a Brexit extension.
NO CONFIDENCE VOTE
SOME rebel MPs believe this week could represent the last chance for Parliament to block a No Deal Brexit. If the rebels’ attempts to pass legislation fails – or if Mr Johnson threatens to ignore it – they could push for a formal confidence vote designed to bring down his government. But rebels are divided over what should happen next. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said he would exercise his right to try to form a government, but most Tory MPs are implacably opposed to him ever entering No 10. Others prefer a caretaker leader, such as Kenneth Clarke or Harriet Harman, but, with no agreement on an alternative, Mr Johnson could refuse to quit.