We’ve gone into reverse with war of words

WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF A DEAL?

Looking highly unlikely. Less than a week after Boris Johnson launched his blueprint, the EU has effectively declared it dead. German Chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday apparently killed it off, telling Mr Johnson in an 8am call that a deal based on his plans was ‘ overwhelmingly unlikely’.

IS THERE ANY GLIMMER OF HOPE?

Last night Mr Johnson spoke to Irish PM Leo Varadkar for 40 minutes on the phone - and the pair are expected to meet in person in the coming days. If Mr Varadkar is prepared to move on customs then a deal is possible - but that would be an enormous climbdown.

WHAT WAS MR JOHNSON’S PLAN?

To avoid a ‘hard border’ in Northern Ireland, Mr Johnson and the DUP agreed to keep the North inside the single market for agriculture and industrial goods. In return, they said the EU and Dublin should allow it to leave the customs union. They also want a form of democratic consent for the Northern Ireland Assembly for the new arrangements.

WHAT DID MRS MERKEL SAY?

No 10 sources say she insisted that a Brexit deal would only happen if Northern Ireland stayed in the customs union. It is also claimed she said Dublin must have a veto on Northern Ireland leaving. This red line makes Mr Johnson’s task next to impossible. Any deal that keeps Northern Ireland inside the customs union simply will not be accepted by the Tories or the DUP.

WHY WON’T THE EU COMPROMISE?

According to briefings, EU officials say Mr Johnson’s plans don’t work, could open a backdoor to the EU’s markets and that customs checks in Ireland are unacceptable.

Additionally, both Ireland and the rest of the EU think the Benn Act makes No Deal impossible. Without that threat, they have little incentive to give ground and can instead gamble on an election in the UK producing a softer deal or a second referendum in which Remain wins. WILL MR JOHNSON GO TO THE EU COUNCIL NEXT WEEK?

This is highly unlikely. The formal talks are still limping on in Brussels but the war of words shows the momentum has gone into reverse. EU Council President Donald Tusk accused Mr Johnson of playing a ‘stupid blame game’.

WILL HE BE FORCED TO DELAY BREXIT?

His pledge during the Tory leadership campaign was that Brexit would happen ‘do or die’ on October 31. But the Benn Act says that if he hasn’t got a deal by October 19, he must write to the EU asking for a three-month delay. A briefing thought to have come from Dominic Cummings, Mr Johnson’s top aide, says No 10’s lawyers

have ‘all sorts of things to scupper delay’. Expect Mr Johnson to refuse to sign the letter or fight in the courts. WHAT IS LABOUR’S POSITION?

It has several. Jeremy Corbyn keeps saying he wants an election but has twice voted against one, and claims he wants to wait until after October 31 to avoid No Deal. He may well go for it after the Brexit delay is secured.

WHAT ABOUT A NEW REFERENDUM?

For many MPs, the prospect of a general election is a nightmare. Remainers want to find a way to force a second referendum through, with Remain on the ballot paper, before the next election.

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF MR JOHNSON WON A MAJORITY?

If he wins a majority, he might still be able to do side deals with the EU to mitigate the damage of No Deal, but the idea of a belt and braces deal that looked like the Withdrawal Agreement appears highly improbable.