Excess deaths fall away in sign crisis is under control

MULTIPLE reports yesterday gave hope the coronavirus crisis is at last coming under control.

A report from Public Health England said last week there were no ‘significant’ numbers of deaths above the average for the time of year. Meanwhile senior researchers said they believe the mortality rate would be back to average weekly levels by the end of this month.

And a large-scale survey by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and independent researchers said the number of new infections in England is now running at below 4,000 a week – suggesting the spread of the virus has more than halved since last month.

The Public Health England report, cited by Health Secretary Matt Hancock in yesterday’s No 10 briefing, said figures collected up until Wednesday this week showed there was no evidence of ‘ significant’ deaths over the average level for the time of year.

It said: ‘Hospitalisation and ICU/HDU admission rates continued to decline slowly. Similarly, there has been a steady decline in Covid deaths and there has been no significant overall excess all-cause mortality.’

PHE figures differ from the official ‘excess death’ toll published by the ONS, which relies on registrations of deaths. This has not yet covered beyond the week ending June 5.

But Oxford University researchers said yesterday more than one in three NHS hospital trusts have seen no Covid deaths in a week. Professor Carl Heneghan said it was ‘plausible’ overall numbers of deaths could be back to average weekly levels by the end of June.