Crowded Earth

Experts say global population will climb to almost 10billion (but then start to fall again)

The world’s population is expected to grow to almost ten billion by the middle of this century before starting to shrink.

The global population – currently 7.6billion – will rise to 9.7billion by 2064, experts predict.

But after that declining birth rates will see it fall so that it hits 8.8billion by 2100. Previous estimates have predicted that global population will continue to grow throughout this century. Researchers believe the reduction will see a major shift in the balance of power around the world, with some nations’ populations dropping by 50 per cent.

Fertility rates are declining around the world, largely due to improved contraception and female education.

The study, published in the Lancet medical journal last night, predicted this will soon see an end to ever-growing population numbers. The population of the UK will rise from the current 67million to 75million in 2063, before gradually falling to 72million in 2100.

But the US researchers, from the University of Washington in Seattle, project that 23 countries will see their populations shrink by more than 50 per cent, including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain.

In order for the population to keep growing, each woman on the planet must have more than 2.1 children, on average.

This figure – called the ‘total fertility rate’ – is currently 2.37 overall, meaning the world’s population is still growing. But the researchers predict that by 2100 this will have fallen to 1.66.

Research leader Dr Christopher Murray said: ‘Continued growth through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world’s population.

‘This study provides governments of all countries an opportunity to start rethinking their policies on migration, workforces and economic development to address the challenges presented by demographic change.’

The researchers also projected a major increase in the number of elderly people.

Over- 80s will outnumber under-fives by two to one by the end of the century as fertility falls and life expectancy increases.

At the moment there are 681million children under the age of five – a figure that will fall to 401million. The number of over-80s, meanwhile, is projected to increase six fold, from 141million to 866million.