Obese, 74, with heart history: He’s high risk
DONALD Trump’s age, medical history and obesity mean he is at markedly increased risk of becoming seriously ill with Covid.
While the vast majority of people who contract coronavirus only ever have mild symptoms, the chance of suffering a bad case significantly increases with age.
At 74, Mr Trump is well into the at-risk category, a picture that is worsened by his weight, history of heart troubles and the simple fact he is a man. He is currently said to have only mild symptoms, but the crucial period will be in about seven to ten days, when Covid patients tend to either recover or rapidly deteriorate.
Some 85 per cent of people who contract Covid never need to go to hospital, and 99 per cent survive the virus. But Mr Trump’s health profile means these chances are diminished – with experts last night warning he had roughly a 20 per cent chance of requiring hospital admission.
Dr Yvonne Maldonado, an infectious disease specialist from Stanford University, said: ‘Essentially, in the US about 80 per cent of people who are infected do not get hospitalised, but of those... 20 per cent who are hospitalised, the vast majority are over 65 and he’s at least ten years older than that.’
She told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘His health in terms of weight is considered an underlying risk factor as well.’
Age is by far the biggest determinant of how someone fares with Covid. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, people aged 65 to 74 have a five times higher risk of hospital admission with coronavirus compared with those aged 18 to 29, and a 90fold higher risk of death.
Mr Trump is at the upper end of that age bracket, and will turn 75 next June. For people aged 75 to 84, the risk of needing hospital admission jumps to eight times higher, with a 220 times higher risk of death.
Men have twice as high a risk of dying from coronavirus as women. The President is also obese, according to notes from his annual physical examination, published in June.
He weighs 17st 6lb (110kg) and is 6ft 3in tall, which equates to a body mass index of 30.5.
A score of 30 or above is considered obese, which studies have found doubles the risk of being admitted to intensive care with Covid. Doctors have told Mr Trump he needs to lose weight, improve his diet and do more exercise.
He has claimed he gets ‘more exercise than people think’ by doing lots of walking and playing golf, but is reported to resist attempts to make him do more vigorous activity. The book Trump Revealed, written by Washington Post journalists Michael Kranish and Marc Fisher, says Mr Trump believes exercise saps him of energy.
They wrote: ‘After college, after Trump mostly gave up his personal athletic interests, he came to view time spent playing sports as time wasted. Trump believed the human body was like a battery, with a finite amount of energy, which exercise only depleted. So he didn’t work out.’
Dr Gregory Poland, an infectious disease specialist at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota, said last night: ‘Obesity is a state of chronic lowered immunity. In other words, you don’t respond to vaccines as well, you don’t respond to infections as well.’
Mr Trump’s mild heart disease also reduces his chances of fighting off the virus. Covid-19 starts off as a respiratory condition, with a cough, fever and loss of sense of smell and taste.
But if the infection is not warded off in the first few days, it changes from a breathing problem into an inflammatory condition. It is at this time – usually during the second week after symptoms appear – that people tend to be taken to hospital.
The same pattern was seen with Boris Johnson when he was infected in April. During this inflammatory period, the heart comes under strain and people with a history of cardiovascular problems are at greater risk.
Mr Trump earlier this year claimed to have been taking the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine to ward off Covid.
But this week a University of Pennsylvania study found the drug was no more effective than dummy placebo pills at defending against the illness.
‘Age is the biggest determinant’